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• INFERRING MECHANISTIC PARAMETERS OF SOMATIC HYPERMUTATION USING NEURAL NETWORKS AND APPROXIMATE BAYESIAN COMPUTATION AI翻译
  作者：Fisher, Thayer; Sung, Kevin; Simon, Noah; Fukuyama, Julia; Matsen, Frederick A.
  作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington
  摘要：Somatic hypermutation (SHM) is a critical enzyme-mediated process of the adaptive immune response in which antibodies acquire mutations to enhance antigen binding. Despite abundant research elucidating the biochemical basis of SHM, and substantial sequence data available for parameterization, previous computational models of SHM have not been explicitly mechanistic. In this paper we bridge this gap by developing a probabilistic latent variable model encapsulating a sequence of interacting step...
• LEVERAGING CELLPHONE-DERIVED MOBILITY NETWORKS TO ASSESS COVID-19 TRAVEL RISK AI翻译
  作者：Slater, Justin J.; Brown, Patrick E.; Rosenthal, Jeffrey S.; Mateu, Jorge
  作者单位：University of Guelph; University of Toronto; Universitat Jaume I
  摘要：Since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, public health authorities across the globe have implemented policies, such as lockdowns, in an attempt to reduce population mobility and, consequently, person-to-person contacts. It is well known that lockdowns reduce mobility, but to what extent does this reduction in mobility lead to lower infection rates? In this paper we extend the endemic-epidemic modeling framework in a principled manner, incorporating temporally changing mobility network dat...
• ULTRA-SPARSE SMALL AREA ESTIMATION WITH SUPER HEAVY-TAILED PRIORS FOR INTERNAL MIGRATION FLOWS AI翻译
  作者：Fuquene-Patino, Jairo; Betancourt, Brenda
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Chicago
  摘要：Migration flows represent an important component of global sustainable development and demographic trends. However, the dynamic nature of the migration phenomenon, known issues of undercoverage of administrative records and long intercensal periods make estimation of internal migration a very challenging task. In this work we focus on the estimation of internal migration in Colombia, which is the subject of an ongoing armed conflict that has triggered forced and voluntary population movements ...
• STATISTICAL INFERENCE FOR REGRESSION WITH IMPUTED BINARY COVARIATES WITH APPLICATION TO EMOTION RECOGNITION AI翻译
  作者：Lin, Ziqian; Huang, Danyang; Xiong, Ziyu; Wang, Hansheng
  作者单位：Peking University; Renmin University of China; Renmin University of China
  摘要：In the flourishing live streaming industry, accurate recognition of streamers' emotions has become a critical research focus with profound implications for audience engagement and content optimization. However, precise emotion coding typically requires manual annotation by trained experts, making it extremely expensive and time-consuming to obtain complete observational data for large-scale studies. Motivated by this challenge in streamer emotion recognition, we develop here a novel imputation...
• POD-BIN: A PROBABILITY OF DECISION BAYESIAN INTERVAL DESIGN FOR TIME-TO-EVENT DOSE-FINDING TRIALS WITH MULTIPLE TOXICITY GRADES AI翻译
  作者：Liu, Meizi; Lin, Ji; Mi, Gu; Lorenzato, Christelle; Chen, Xun; Ji, Yuan
  作者单位：Sanofi-Aventis; Sanofi USA; University of Chicago
  摘要：We introduce a Bayesian framework centered on the probability of decision for designing dose-finding trials. The proposed PoD-BIN design evaluates the posterior predictive probabilities of up-and-down decisions. In PoDBIN, multiple grades of toxicity, categorized as mild toxicity (MT) and doselimiting toxicity (DLT), are simultaneously modeled, with the primary outcome being time-to-toxicity for both MT and DLT. This approach allows the enrollment of new patients while previously enrolled pati...
• MORE POWER TO YOU: USING MACHINE LEARNING TO AUGMENT HUMAN CODING FOR MORE EFFICIENT INFERENCE IN TEXT-BASED RANDOMIZED TRIALS AI翻译
  作者：Mozer, Reagan; Miratrix, Luke
  作者单位：Bentley University; Harvard University
  摘要：For randomized trials that use text as an outcome, traditional approaches for assessing treatment impact require that each document first be manually coded for constructs of interest by trained human raters. This process, the current standard, is both time-consuming and limiting: even the largest human coding efforts are typically constrained to measure only a small set of dimensions across a subsample of available texts. In this work we present an inferential framework that can be used to inc...
• PERIODOGRAM REGRESSION: A TWO-STAGE MIXED EFFECTS APPROACH FOR MODELLING MULTIPLE INTEGER-VALUED TIME SERIES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY AI翻译
  作者：Zhang, Lyuyuan; Qian, Guoqi; Das, Sourav
  作者单位：University of Melbourne; James Cook University
  摘要：Tropical cyclones (TC) are significant indicators of evolving climate dynamics. Two primary responses of interest are the cyclone frequency and intensity. In this paper we propose a novel integrated modelling framework for simultaneous modelling of TC frequency across several meteorological regions within Australasia. The key methodological insight is to model the second-order properties of multiple integer-valued time series in frequency domain, instead of parametric time domain models. We ta...