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作者：Dietvorst, Berkeley J.; Simmons, Joseph P.; Massey, Cade
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Although evidence-based algorithms consistently outperform human forecasters, people often fail to use them after learning that they are imperfect, a phenomenon known as algorithm aversion. In this paper, we present three studies investigating how to reduce algorithm aversion. In incentivized forecasting tasks, participants chose between using their own forecasts or those of an algorithm that was built by experts. Participants were considerably more likely to choose to use an imperfect algorit...
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作者：Markle, Alex B.; Rottenstreich, Yuval
作者单位：Fordham University; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Most theories of decision making are consequentialist. They presume that people evaluate prospects on the basis of potential outcomes. However, people may often conceptualize prospects in part nonconsequentially. Consider someone evaluating a new, focal prospect given an unresolved background position to which that person is already exposed. If the two are positively correlated, the individual may conceptualize the focal prospect as a bet with the individual's background position; if they are ...
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作者：Ranehill, Eva; Zethraeus, Niklas; Blomberg, Liselott; von Schoultz, Bo; Hirschberg, Angelica Linden; Johannesson, Magnus; Dreber, Anna
作者单位：University of Gothenburg; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Karolinska Institutet; Karolinska Institutet; Karolinska University Hospital; Karolinska Institutet; Karolinska University Hospital; Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：A growing body of correlational studies suggests that sex hormones such as those contained in, or affected by, oral contraceptives (OCs) may impact economic behavior. However, despite widespread use of OCs among women in Western countries, little is known about their potential behavioral effects. The present study investigates whether OCs causally influence economic preferences. We randomly allocate 340 women aged 18-35 to three months of a widely used OC or placebo treatment. At the end of tr...
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作者：Han, Jungsuk; Kyle, Albert S.
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：Modest differences in higher-order beliefs may have large price effects. We generalize a standard rational expectations equilibrium model with different information by allowing differences in higher-order beliefs. Investors have possibly different dogmatic beliefs about the mean, different dogmatic beliefs about other investors' beliefs, and so on for higher and higher orders of beliefs. Even when every investor's first-order expectations are unbiased, overvaluation results when investors have...
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作者：Li, Jun; Netessine, Serguei; Koulayev, Sergei
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We study price competition in markets with a large number (in the magnitude of hundreds or thousands) of potential competitors. We address two methodological challenges: simultaneity bias and high dimensionality. Simultaneity bias arises from joint determination of prices in competitive markets. We propose a new instrumental variable approach to address simultaneity bias in high dimensions. The novelty of the idea is to exploit online search and clickstream data to uncover customer preferences...
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作者：Wang, Jingqi; Zhou, Yong-Pin
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：We study how queue configuration affects human servers' service time by comparing dedicated queues with shared queues using field data from a natural experiment in a supermarket. We hypothesize that queue configuration may affect servers' service rate through several mechanisms: pooling may affect service rate directly as a result of social loafing effect and competition effect and indirectly via its impact on queue length. To investigate these impacts, we take advantage of the supermarket's c...
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作者：Koerpeoglu, Ersin; Cho, Soo-Haeng
作者单位：University of London; University College London; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：In a contest in which solvers with heterogeneous expertise exert effort to develop solutions, a recent paper [Terwiesch C, Xu Y (2008) Innovation contests, open innovation, and multiagent problem solving. Management Sci. 54(9):1529-1543] argues that as more solvers enter the contest, every solver will reduce effort due to a lower probability of winning the contest. This paper corrects mistakes in this theory, and shows that there exist high-expertise solvers who may raise their effort in respo...
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作者：Cabral, Luis
作者单位：New York University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：I examine the dynamics of oligopolies when firms derive subjective value from market leadership. In equilibrium, prices alternate in tandem between high levels and occasional price wars, which take place when market leadership is at stake. The stationary distribution of market shares is typically multimodal; that is, much of the time, there is a stable market leader. Even though shareholders do not value market leadership per se, a corporate culture that values market leadership may increase s...
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作者：Yang, Zhibin (Ben); Hu, Xinxin; Gurnani, Haresh; Guan, Huiqi
作者单位：University of Oregon; University of Houston System; University of Houston; University of Houston Downtown; Wake Forest University; University of Miami
摘要：We study the optimal distribution strategy of a supplier with limited capacity. The supplier may adopt the supplier-only role, be the solo seller in the market, or use the dual-channel strategy and compete with its downstream buyer. In comparison to the case of unlimited capacity, we show that the supplier, the buyer, and consumers may all benefit from the supplier's limited capacity at the same time, leading to a win-winwin outcome. We also find that, under limited capacity, the downstream bu...
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作者：Joe, Denis Yongmin; Oh, Frederick Dongchuhl
作者单位：Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology (KAIST)
摘要：We examine the spillover effects that occur within Korean business groups (i.e., chaebols) by focusing on the market reactions of event firms to announcements of credit rating changes. We find that there are positive spillovers (caused by positive market reactions) and negative spillovers (caused by negative market reactions) that are driven by the market reactions of event firms. Our analyses indicate that negative spillovers are more dominant than positive spillovers. Moreover, a spillover t...
