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作者：van Binsbergen, Jules H.; Koijen, Ralph S. J.
作者单位：Stanford University; University of Chicago
摘要：We propose a latent variables approach within a present-value model to estimate the expected returns and expected dividend growth rates of the aggregate stock market. This approach aggregates information contained in the history of price-dividend ratios and dividend growth rates to predict future returns and dividend growth rates. We find that returns and dividend growth rates are predictable with R-2 values ranging from 8.2% to 8.9% for returns and 13.9% to 31.6% for dividend growth rates. Bo...
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作者：Banerjee, Snehal; Kremer, Ilan
作者单位：Northwestern University; Stanford University
摘要：The empirical evidence on investor disagreement and trading volume is difficult to reconcile in standard rational expectations models. We develop a dynamic model in which investors disagree about the interpretation of public information. We obtain a closed-form linear equilibrium that allows us to study which restrictions on the disagreement process yield empirically observed volume and return dynamics. We show that when investors have infrequent but major disagreements, there is positive auto...
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作者：Heston, Steven L.; Korajczyk, Robert A.; Sadka, Ronnie
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Northwestern University; Boston College
摘要：Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, we examine intraday predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We find a striking pattern of return continuation at half-hour intervals that are exact multiples of a trading day, and this effect lasts for at least 40 trading days. Volume, order imbalance, volatility, and bid-ask spreads exhibit similar patterns, but do not explain the return patterns. We also show that short-term return reversal is driven by tempor...
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作者：Routledge, Bryan R.; Zin, Stanley E.
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We characterize generalized disappointment aversion (GDA) risk preferences that can overweight lower-tail outcomes relative to expected utility. We show in an endowment economy that recursive utility with GDA risk preferences generates effective risk aversion that is countercyclical. This feature comes from endogenous variation in the probability of disappointment in the representative agent's intertemporal consumption-saving problem that underlies the asset pricing model. The variation in eff...
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作者：Ai, Hengjie
作者单位：Duke University
摘要：I study the asset pricing implications of the quality of public information about persistent productivity shocks in a general equilibrium model with Kreps-Porteus preferences. Low information quality is associated with a high equity premium, a low volatility of consumption growth, and a low volatility of the risk-free interest rate. The relationship between information quality and the equity premium differs from that in endowment economies. My calibration improves substantially upon the Bansal...
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作者：Duffie, Darrell
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：I describe asset price dynamics caused by the slow movement of investment capital to trading opportunities. The pattern of price responses to supply or demand shocks typically involves a sharp reaction to the shock and a subsequent and more extended reversal. The amplitude of the immediate price impact and the pattern of the subsequent recovery can reflect institutional impediments to immediate trade, such as search costs for trading counterparties or time to raise capital by intermediaries. I...
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作者：Menzly, Lior; Ozbas, Oguzhan
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：We present evidence supporting the hypothesis that due to investor specialization and market segmentation, value-relevant information diffuses gradually in financial markets. Using the stock market as our setting, we find that (i) stocks that are in economically related supplier and customer industries cross-predict each other's returns, (ii) the magnitude of return cross-predictability declines with the number of informed investors in the market as proxied by the level of analyst coverage and...
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作者：Evans, Richard B.
作者单位：University of Virginia
摘要：Incubation is a strategy for initiating new funds, where multiple funds are started privately, and, at the end of an evaluation period, some are opened to the public. Consistent with incubation being used by fund families to increase performance and attract flows, funds in incubation outperform nonincubated funds by 3.5% risk-adjusted, and when they are opened to the public they attract higher flows. Postincubation, however, this outperformance disappears. This performance reversal imparts an ...
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作者：Doidge, Craig; Karolyi, G. Andrew; Stulz, Rene M.
作者单位：University of Toronto; Cornell University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Foreign firms terminate their Securities and Exchange Commission registration in the aftermath of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) because they no longer require outside funds to finance growth opportunities. Deregistering firms' insiders benefit from greater discretion to consume private benefits without having to raise higher cost funds. Foreign firms with more agency problems have worse stock-price reactions to the adoption of Rule 12h-6 in 2007, which made deregistration easier, than those fir...
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作者：Linnainmaa, Juhani T.
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：Individual investors lose money around earnings announcements, experience poor posttrade returns, exhibit the disposition effect, and make contrarian trades. Using simulations and trading records of all individual investors in Finland, I find that these trading patterns can be explained in large part by investors' use of limit orders. These patterns arise mechanically because limit orders are price-contingent and suffer from adverse selection. Reverse causality from behavioral biases to order ...
