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作者：Bose, Devdeepta; Cordes, Henning; Nolte, Sven; Schneider, Judith Christiane; Camerer, Colin Farrell
作者单位：California Institute of Technology; University of Munster; Radboud University Nijmegen; Leibniz University Hannover
摘要：We apply a machine-learning algorithm, calibrated using general human vision, to predict the visual salience of prices of stock price charts. We hypothesize that the visual salience of adjacent prices increases the decision weights on returns computed from those prices. We analyze the inferred impact of these weights in two experimental studies that use either historical price charts or simpler artificial sequences. We find that decision weights derived from visual salience are associated with...
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作者：Parlour, Christine A.; Rajan, Uday; Zhu, Haoxiang
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study the impact of FinTech competition in payment services when a monopolist bank uses payment data to learn about consumers' credit quality. Competition from FinTech payment providers disrupts this information spillover. The bank's price for payment services and its loan offers are affected. FinTech competition promotes financial inclusion, may hurt consumers with a strong bank preference, and has an ambiguous effect on the loan market. Both FinTech data sales and consumer data portabilit...
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作者：Cornaggia, Kimberly; Hund, John; Nguyen, Giang; Ye, Zihan
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE); University of Nevada Las Vegas
摘要：We investigate the effects of opioid abuse on municipal finance. We employ instrumental variables, border discontinuity difference-in-differences regressions, and coarsened exact matching to identify consistent causal effects, while controlling for variation in economic conditions and demographics. Opioid abuse lowers credit ratings, increases new offer yields, and reduces bond issuance. Reversal of these effects following effective antiopioid legislation further supports causality. Differenti...
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作者：He, Zhiguo; Khorrami, Paymon; Song, Zhaogang
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Imperial College London; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：Two intermediary-based factors-a corporate bond dealer inventory measure and a broad intermediary distress measure-explain more than 40% of the puzzling common variation in credit spread changes beyond canonical structural factors. A simple intermediary-based model with partial market segmentation accounts for intermediary factors' explanatory power and delivers three further implications with empirical support. First, whereas bond sorts on risk-related variables produce monotonic loading patt...
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作者：Iliev, Peter; Kalodimos, Jonathan; Lowry, Michelle
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作者：Faccio, Mara; Zingales, Luigi
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; National Bureau of Economic Research; European Corporate Governance Institute; University of Chicago; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We study the relationship between the presence of politicians on mobile service operators' boards and the regulation of the mobile telecommunication sector. In countries in which mobile operators have deeper connections with local politicians, we find that rules promote competition less, even after we control for country fixed effects and a country's level of corruption. Rules that promote competition are associated with lower concentration and lower prices. There is no evidence that procompet...
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作者：Pagnotta, Emiliano S.
作者单位：Imperial College London; Singapore Management University
摘要：We address the determination of bitcoin prices and decentralized security. Users forecast the transactional and resale values of holdings, pricing the risk of systemic attacks. Miners contribute resources to protect against attackers and compete for block rewards. Bitcoin's design leads to multiple equilibria: the same blockchain technology is consistent with sharply different price and security levels. Bitcoin's monetary policy can lead to welfare losses and deviations from quantity theory. P...
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作者：Braeuer, Konstantin; Hackethal, Andreas; Hanspal, Tobin
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; Vienna University of Economics & Business
摘要：This paper studies why investors buy dividend-paying assets and how they time consumption accordingly. We combine administrative bank data linking customers' consumption and income to portfolio data and survey responses on financial behavior. We find that private consumption is excessively sensitive to dividend income. Investors across wealth, income, and age distributions increase spending precisely around days of dividend receipt. Our results are at odds with a number of existing rational an...
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作者：Liao, Jingchi; Peng, Cameron; Zhu, Ning
作者单位：Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE); University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Shanghai Jiao Tong University
摘要：We propose an extrapolative model of bubbles to explain the sharp rise in prices and volume observed in historical financial bubbles. The model generates a novel mechanism for volume: because of the interaction between extrapolative beliefs and disposition effects, investors are quick to not only buy assets with positive past returns but also sell them if good returns continue. Using account-level transaction data on the 2014-2015 Chinese stock market bubble, we test and confirm the model's pr...
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作者：Hilscher, Jens; Raviv, Alon; Reis, Ricardo
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; Bar Ilan University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This paper proposes a new method for measuring the impact of inflation on the real value of public debt. The distribution of debt debasement is based on two inputs: the distribution of privately held nominal debt by maturity, for which we provide new estimates, and the distribution of risk-adjusted inflation dynamics, for which we provide a novel copula estimator using options data. We find that inflation by itself is unlikely to lower the U.S. fiscal burden significantly because debt is conce...
