Decision Weights for Experimental Asset Prices Based on Visual Salience

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bose, Devdeepta; Cordes, Henning; Nolte, Sven; Schneider, Judith Christiane; Camerer, Colin Farrell
• 署名单位: California Institute of Technology; University of Munster; Radboud University Nijmegen; Leibniz University Hannover
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0893-9454
• DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhac027
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 5094
• 关键词: cross-section; risk perception; prospect-theory; stock returns; attention; MODEL; expectations; computation; PSYCHOLOGY; fixations

摘要

We apply a machine-learning algorithm, calibrated using general human vision, to predict the visual salience of prices of stock price charts. We hypothesize that the visual salience of adjacent prices increases the decision weights on returns computed from those prices. We analyze the inferred impact of these weights in two experimental studies that use either historical price charts or simpler artificial sequences. We find that decision weights derived from visual salience are associated with experimental investments. The predictability is not subsumed by statistical features and goes beyond established models.