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• The economic impacts of climate change:: Evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather AI翻译
  作者：Deschenes, Olivier; Greenstone, Michael
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
  摘要：This paper measures the economic impact of climate change on US agricultural land by estimating the effect of random year-to-year variation in temperature and precipitation on agricultural profits. The preferred estimates indicate that climate change will increase annual profits by $1.3 billion in 2002 dollars (2002$) or 4 percent. This estimate is robust to numerous specification checks and relatively precise, so large negative or positive effects are unlikely. We also find the hedonic approa...
• Urban evolutions: The fast, the slow, and the still AI翻译
  作者：Duranton, Gilles
  作者单位：University of Toronto
  摘要：With the use of French and US data, new and systematic evidence is provided about the rapid location changes of industries across cities (the fast). Cities are also slowly moving up and down the urban hierarchy (the slow), while the size distribution of cities is skewed to the right and very stable (the still). The model proposed here reproduces these three features. Small, innovation-driven shocks lead to the churning of industries across cities. Then, cities slowly grow or decline following ...
• Credit traps and credit cycles AI翻译
  作者：Matsuyama, Kiminori
  作者单位：Northwestern University
• Testing for indeterminacy: An application to US monetary policy: Reply AI翻译
  作者：Lubik, Thomas A.; Schorfheide, Frank
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; University of Pennsylvania
• Competence implies credibility AI翻译
  作者：Moscarini, Giuseppe
  摘要：The (reputation for) competence of a central bank at doing its job makes monetary policy under discretion credible and transparent. Based on its reading of the state of the economy, the central bank announces its policy intentions to the public in a cheap-talk game. The precision of its private signal measures its competence. The fineness of the equilibrium message space measures its credibility and transparency. This is increasing in the competence/inflation bias ratio: the public expects a c...
• The cross section of foreign currency risk premia and consumption growth risk AI翻译
  作者：Lustig, Hanno; Verdelhan, Adrien
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Boston University
  摘要：Aggregate consumption growth risk explains why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. Domestic investors earn negative excess returns on low interest rate currency portfolios and positive excess returns on high interest rate currency portfolios. Because high interest rate currencies depreciate on average when domestic consumption growth is low and...
• Do workers work more if wages are high? Evidence from a randomized field experiment AI翻译
  作者：Fehr, Ernst; Goette, Lorenz
  作者单位：University of Zurich
  摘要：Most previous studies on intertemporal labor supply found very small or insignificant substitution effects. It is possible that these results are due to constraints on workers' labor supply choices. We conducted afield experiment in a setting in which workers were free to choose hours worked and effort per hour. We document a large positive elasticity of overall labor supply and an even larger elasticity of hours, which implies that the elasticity of effort per hour is negative. We examine two...
• Vignettes and self-reports of work disability in the United States and the Netherlands AI翻译
  作者：Kapteyn, Arie; Smith, James P.; Van Soest, Arthur
  作者单位：RAND Corporation; Tilburg University