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作者：Schlenker, Wolfram; Taylor, Charles A.
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We compare prices of financial derivatives whose payouts are based on future weather outcomes to CMIP5 climate model predictions as well as observed weather station data across eight cities in the US from 2001 through 2020. Derivative prices respond both to short-term weather forecasts for the next two weeks and longer-term warming trends. We show that the long-term trends in derivative prices are comparable to station-level data and climate model output. The one exception is February in the n...
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作者：Allen, Franklin; Haas, Marlene D.; Nowak, Eric; Tengulov, Angel
作者单位：Imperial College London; Universita della Svizzera Italiana; University of Kansas
摘要：On October 26, 2008, Porsche announced a largely unexpected domination plan for Volkswagen. The resulting short squeeze in Volkswagen's stock briefly made it the most valuable listed company in the world. We argue that this was a manipulation designed to save Porsche from insolvency and the German laws against this kind of abuse were not effectively enforced. Using hand-collected data we provide the first rigorous academic study of the Porsche-VW squeeze and show that it significantly impeded ...
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作者：Guo, Yifeng; Mota, Lira
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：Information production is key to the efficiency of financial markets. Does selling infor-mation separately improve its production? We investigate this question using MiFID II, a European regulation that unbundles research from transactions. We show that unbundling causes fewer research analysts to cover a firm. This decrease does not come from small -or mid-cap firms but is concentrated in large firms. Surprisingly, the reduction in analyst coverage is accompanied by a decrease in forecast err...
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作者：Keloharju, Matti; Linnainmaa, Juhani T.; Nyberg, Peter
作者单位：Aalto University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Long-term expected returns do not appear to vary in the cross section of stocks. We show that even negligible persistent differences in expected returns, if they existed, would be easy to detect. Markers of such differences, however, are absent from actual stock returns. Our results are consistent with behavioral models and production-based asset pricing models in which firms' risks change over time. Consistent with the lack of long-term differences in expected returns, persistent differences ...
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作者：Zandberg, Jonathan
作者单位：Boston College
摘要：Better access to reproductive healthcare increases women's propensity to become entrepreneurs. Access correlates positively with female entrepreneurial activity and negatively with female entrepreneurial age. Examining firm size and personal income suggests it also improves the success of female-led businesses. None of these results hold when tested on men, women above 40, or other placebo professions. To establish causality, I exploit Roe v. Wade, state laws restricting abortion providers, an...
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作者：Child, Travers Barclay; Massoud, Nadia; Schabus, Mario; Zhou, Yifan
作者单位：China Europe International Business School; University of Melbourne; Michigan State University; Michigan State University's Broad College of Business; Fudan University
摘要：We exploit Donald Trump's nonpolitical background and surprise election victory to identify the value of sudden presidential ties among S&P 500 firms. In our setting firms did not choose to become politically connected, so we identify treatment effects comparatively free of selection bias prevalent in this literature. Firms with presidential ties enjoyed greater abnormal returns around the 2016 election. Since Trump's inauguration, connected firms had better performance, received more governme...
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作者：Bachas, Natalie; Kim, Olivia S.; Yannelis, Constantine
作者单位：Princeton University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Chicago
摘要：The efficiency of federal lending guarantees depends on whether guarantees increase lending supply or simply act as a subsidy to lenders. We use notches in the guarantee rate schedule for Small Business Administration (SBA) loans to estimate the elasticity of bank lending volume to loan guarantees. We show significant bunching in the loan distribution on the side of the size threshold that carries a more generous loan guarantee. The excess mass implies that increasing guarantee generosity by o...
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作者：Dong, Rui; Fisman, Raymond; Wang, Yongxiang; Xu, Nianhang
作者单位：Renmin University of China; Boston University; University of Southern California; Shanghai Jiao Tong University
摘要：We document a negative relation between air pollution during corporate site visits by investment analysts and subsequent earnings forecasts. After accounting for analyst, weather, and firm characteristics, an extreme worsening of air quality from good/excellent to severely polluted is associated with a more than 1 percentage point lower profit forecast, relative to realized profits. We explore heterogeneity in the pollution-forecast relation to understand better the underlying mechanism. Pollu...
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作者：Gryglewicz, Sebastian; Mayer, Simon; Morellec, Erwan
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); University of Chicago; Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris
摘要：We develop a model in which a start-up firm issues tokens to finance a digital platform, which creates agency conflicts between platform developers and outsiders. We show that token financing is preferred to equity financing unless the platform expects strong cash flows, has large financing needs, or faces severe agency conflicts. Tokens are characterized by their utility features, facilitating transactions, and security features, granting cash flow rights. While security features trigger endo...
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作者：Kashyap, Anil K.; Kovrijnykh, Natalia; Li, Jian; Pavlova, Anna
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Bank of England; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; University of Chicago; University of London; London Business School
摘要：We argue that the pervasive practice of evaluating portfolio managers relative to a bench-mark has real effects. Benchmarking generates additional, inelastic demand for assets in-side the benchmark. This leads to a benchmark inclusion subsidy: a firm inside the benchmark values an investment project more than the one outside. The same wedge arises for valuing M&A, spinoffs, and IPOs. This overturns the proposition that an invest-ment's value is independent of the entity considering it. We desc...
