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作者：Al-Najjar, Nabil; Pomatto, Luciano; Sandroni, Alvaro
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：Hume (1748) challenged the idea that a general claim (e.g., all swans are white) can be validated by empirical evidence, no matter how compelling. We examine this issue from the perspective of a tester who must accept or reject the forecasts of a potential expert. If experts can be skeptical about the validity of claims then they can evade rejection strategically. In contrast, if experts are required to conclude that claims backed by sufficient evidence are likely to be true, then they can be ...
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作者：Kubler, Felix; Selden, Larry; Wei, Xiao
作者单位：University of Zurich; Columbia University; University of Pennsylvania; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We provide conditions under which contingent claim and asset demands are consistent with state independent Expected Utility maximization. The paper focuses on the case of a single commodity and demands are allowed to be functions of probabilities and not just prices and income. We extend prior analyses by deriving three distinct tests for demands to be rationalized by Expected Utility: (i) a contingent claim analogue to the certainty strong axiom of revealed preference, (ii) a characterization...
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作者：Sahin, Ayseguel; Song, Joseph; Topa, Giorgio; Violante, Giovanni L.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Columbia University; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a framework where mismatch between vacancies and job seekers across sectors translates into higher unemployment by lowering the aggregate job-finding rate. We use this framework to measure the contribution of mismatch to the recent rise in US unemployment by exploiting two sources of cross-sectional data on vacancies, JOLTS and HWOL. Our calculations indicate that mismatch, across industries and three-digit occupations, explains at most one-third of the total observed increase in th...
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作者：Chaney, Thomas
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics
摘要：Motivated by empirical evidence I uncover on the dynamics of French firms' exports, I offer a novel theory of trade frictions. Firms export only into markets where they have a contact. They search directly for new trading partners, but also use their existing network of contacts to search remotely for new partners. I characterize the dynamic formation of an international network of exporters in this model. Structurally, I estimate this model on French data and confirm its predictions regarding...
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作者：Gavazza, Alessandro; Lizzeri, Alessandro; Roketskiy, Nikita
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; New York University; University of London; University College London
摘要：Quantitatively, we investigate the allocative and welfare effects of secondary markets for cars. An important source of gains from trade in these markets is the heterogeneity in the willingness to pay for higher-quality (newer) goods, but transaction costs are an impediment to instantaneous trade. Calibration of the model successfully matches several aggregate features of the US and French used-car markets. Counterfactual analyses show that transaction costs have a large effect on volume of tr...
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作者：Aaronson, Daniel; Lange, Fabian; Mazumder, Bhashkar
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; McGill University
摘要：By allowing for an extensive margin in the standard quantity-quality model, we generate new insights into fertility transitions. We test the model on Southern black women affected by a large-scale school construction program. Consistent with our model, women facing improved schooling opportunities for their children were more likely to have at least one child but chose to have smaller families overall. By contrast, women who themselves obtained more schooling due to the program delayed childbe...
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作者：Robson, Arthur J.; Szentes, Balazs
作者单位：Simon Fraser University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We consider a growth model in which intergenerational transfers are made via stocks of private and public capital. Private capital is the outcome of individuals' private savings while decisions regarding public capital are made collectively. We hypothesize that private saving choices evolve through individual selection while public saving decisions are the result of group selection. The main result of the paper is that the equilibrium rate of return to private capital is at least 2-3 percent m...
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作者：Pallais, Amanda
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Hiring inexperienced workers generates information about their abilities. If this information is public, workers obtain its benefits. If workers cannot compensate firms for hiring them, firms will hire too few inexperienced workers. I determine the effects of hiring workers and revealing more information about their abilities through a field experiment in an online marketplace. I hired 952 randomly-selected workers, giving them either detailed or coarse public evaluations. Both hiring workers ...
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作者：Rahman, David
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：In this paper, I offer two ways in which firms can collude: secret monitoring and infrequent coordination. Such collusion is enforceable with intuitive communication protocols. I make my case in the context of a repeated Cournot oligopoly with flexible production, prices that follow a Brownian motion and no monetary side payments, an environment where it has previously been argued that any collusion is impossible. Trade associations can easily facilitate collusion by mediating communication am...
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作者：Alesina, Alberto; La Ferrara, Eliana
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：We collect a new dataset on capital punishment in the United States and we propose a test of racial bias based upon patterns of sentence reversals. We model the courts as minimizing type I and II errors. If trial courts were unbiased, conditional on defendant's race the error rate should be independent of the victim's race. Instead we uncover 3 and 9 percentage points higher reversal rates in direct appeal and habeas corpus cases, respectively, against minority defendants who killed whites. Th...
