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作者：Maggiori, Matteo
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：I model the equilibrium risk sharing between countries with varying financial development. The most financially developed country takes greater risks because its financial intermediaries deal with funding problems better. In good times, the more financially developed country consumes more and runs a trade deficit financed by the higher financial income that it earns as compensation for taking greater risk. During global crises, it suffers heavier losses. Its currency emerges as the reserve cur...
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作者：Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo
作者单位：University of Warwick
摘要：Kurmann and Otrok (2013) establish that the effects on economic activity from news on future productivity growth are similar to the effects from unexpected changes in the slope of the yield curve. This comment shows that these results become substantially weaker in the light of a recent update in the utilization-adjusted total factor productivity series produced by Fernald (2014).
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作者：Cruz, Cesi; Labonne, Julien; Querubin, Pablo
作者单位：University of British Columbia; University of Oxford; New York University
摘要：We demonstrate the importance of politician social networks for electoral outcomes. Using large-scale data on family networks from over 20 million individuals in 15,000 villages in the Philippines, we show that candidates for public office are disproportionately drawn from more central families and family network centrality contributes to higher vote shares during the elections. Consistent with our theory of political intermediation, we present evidence that family network centrality facilitat...
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作者：Gagnon, Etienne; Lopez-Salido, David; Sockin, Jason
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Coibion, Gorodnichenko, and Hong (2015) argue that the CPI underestimates the deceleration in consumer prices during economic downturns because the index fails to account for the reallocation of consumer spending from high-price to low-price stores. We show that their conclusion hinges on some nonstandard methodological choices, including an aggressive censoring of price adjustments and a treatment for missing observations that can leave out some of the price variation. Under our preferred met...
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作者：Manning, Alan; Petrongolo, Barbara
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Queen Mary University London; University of London; Queen Mary University London
摘要：This paper models the optimal search strategies of the unemployed across space to characterize local labor markets. Our methodology allows for linkages between numerous areas, while preserving tractability. We estimate that labor markets are quite local, as the attractiveness of jobs to applicants sharply decays with distance. Also, workers are discouraged from searching in areas with strong competition from other job-seekers. However, as labor markets overlap, a local stimulus or transport im...
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作者：Lemoine, Derek; Rudik, Ivan
作者单位：University of Arizona; National Bureau of Economic Research; Iowa State University; Iowa State University
摘要：Common views hold that the efficient way to limit warming to a chosen level is to price carbon emissions at a rate that increases exponentially. We show that this Hotelling tax on carbon emissions is actually inefficient. The least-cost policy path takes advantage of the climate system's inertia to delay reducing emissions and allow greater cumulative emissions. The efficient carbon tax follows an inverse-U-shaped path and grows more slowly than the Hotelling tax. Economic models that assume e...
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作者：Bernard, Andrew B.; Boler, Esther Ann; Massari, Renzo; Reyes, Jose-Daniel; Taglioni, Daria
作者单位：Dartmouth College; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Imperial College London; The World Bank
摘要：Two identical firms who start exporting in different months, one each in January and December, will report dramatically different exports for the first calendar year. This partial-year effect biases down first-year export levels and biases up first-year export growth rates. For Peruvian exporters, the partial-year bias is large: first-year export levels are understated by 54 percent and the first-year growth rate is overstated by 112 percentage points. Correcting the partial-year effect dramat...
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作者：Hebert, Benjamin; Schreger, Jesse
作者单位：Stanford University; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：A fundamental question in international macroeconomics is why governments repay their debt to foreign creditors, given the limited recourse available to those creditors. The seminal paper of Eaton and Gersovitz (1981) argues that reputation concerns are sufficient to ensure that sovereigns repay their debt. In a famous critique, Bulow and Rogoff (1989a) demonstrate that reputation alone cannot sustain sovereign borrowing in equilibrium, without some other type of default cost or punishment. Th...
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作者：Iaryczower, Matias; Oliveros, Santiago
作者单位：Princeton University; University of Essex
摘要：We consider a class of dynamic collective action problems in which either a single principal or two competing principals vie for the support of members of a group. We focus on the dynamic problem that emerges when agents negotiate and commit their support to principals sequentially. We show that competition reduces agents' welfare with public goods, or if and only if there are positive externalities on uncommitted agents, and increases agents' welfare with public bads. We apply the model to th...
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作者：Kurmann, Andre; Otrok, Christopher
作者单位：Drexel University; University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：This reply to Cascaldi-Garcia's (2017) comment argues that by using the original code of Kurmann and Otrok (2013) with new data on utilization-adjusted TFP, Cascaldi-Garcia (2017) confounds positive and negative news shocks. With a small modification to the code-how a news shock is signed as positive-we obtain news shock responses consistent with Sims (2016) and Kurmann and Sims (2017) and largely reestablish the results of Kurmann and Otrok (2013).
