Exporter Dynamics and Partial-Year Effects

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bernard, Andrew B.; Boler, Esther Ann; Massari, Renzo; Reyes, Jose-Daniel; Taglioni, Daria
• 署名单位: Dartmouth College; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Imperial College London; The World Bank
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20141070
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 3211-3228
• 关键词: sunk costs; MODEL; TRADE

摘要

Two identical firms who start exporting in different months, one each in January and December, will report dramatically different exports for the first calendar year. This partial-year effect biases down first-year export levels and biases up first-year export growth rates. For Peruvian exporters, the partial-year bias is large: first-year export levels are understated by 54 percent and the first-year growth rate is overstated by 112 percentage points. Correcting the partial-year effect dramatically reduces first-year export growth rates, raises initial export levels, and almost doubles the contribution of net firm entry and exit to overall export growth.