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作者：Bhattacharya, Vivek
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Firms and governments often use R&D contests to incentivize suppliers to develop and deliver innovative products. The optimal design of such contests depends on empirical primitives: the cost of research, the uncertainty in outcomes, and the surplus participants capture. Can R&D contests in real-world settings be redesigned to increase social surplus? I ask this question in the context of the Department of Defense's Small Business Innovation Research program, a multistage R&D contest. I develo...
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作者：Auclert, Adrien; Bardoczy, Bence; Rognlie, Matthew; Straub, Ludwig
作者单位：Stanford University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Northwestern University; Harvard University
摘要：We propose a general and highly efficient method for solving and estimating general equilibrium heterogeneous-agent models with aggregate shocks in discrete time. Our approach relies on the rapid computation of sequence-space Jacobians-the derivatives of perfect-foresight equilibrium mappings between aggregate sequences around the steady state. Our main contribution is a fast algorithm for calculating Jacobians for a large class of heterogeneous-agent problems. We combine this algorithm with a...
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作者：Barseghyan, Levon; Coughlin, Maura; Molinari, Francesca; Teitelbaum, Joshua C.
作者单位：Cornell University; Rice University; Georgetown University
摘要：We propose a robust method of discrete choice analysis when agents' choice sets are unobserved. Our core model assumes nothing about agents' choice sets apart from their minimum size. Importantly, it leaves unrestricted the dependence, conditional on observables, between choice sets and preferences. We first characterize the sharp identification region of the model's parameters by a finite set of conditional moment inequalities. We then apply our theoretical findings to learn about households'...
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作者：Jakobsen, Alexander M.
作者单位：University of Calgary
摘要：A sender ranks information structures knowing that a receiver processes the information before choosing an action affecting them both. The sender and receiver may differ in their utility functions and/or prior beliefs, yielding a model of dynamic inconsistency when they represent the same individual at two points in time. I take as primitive (i) a collection of preference orderings over all information structures, indexed by menus of acts (the sender's ex ante preferences for information), and...
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作者：Lazarus, Eben; Lewis, Daniel J.; Stock, James H.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Heteroskedasticity- and autocorrelation-robust (HAR) inference in time series regression typically involves kernel estimation of the long-run variance. Conventional wisdom holds that, for a given kernel, the choice of truncation parameter trades off a test's null rejection rate and power, and that this tradeoff differs across kernels. We formalize this intuition: using higher-order expansions, we provide a unified size-power frontier for both kernel and weighted orthonormal series tests using ...
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作者：Boerma, Job; Karabarbounis, Loukas
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We revisit the causes, welfare consequences, and policy implications of the dispersion in households' labor market outcomes using a model with uninsurable risk, incomplete asset markets, and home production. Allowing households to be heterogeneous in both their disutility of home work and their home production efficiency, we find that home production amplifies welfare-based differences, meaning that inequality in standards of living is larger than we thought. We infer significant home producti...
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作者：Bilal, Adrien; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban
作者单位：Harvard University; University of Chicago
摘要：The location of individuals determines their job and schooling opportunities, amenities, and housing costs. We conceptualize the location choice of individuals as a decision to invest in a location asset. This asset has a current cost equal to the location's rent, and a future payoff through better job and schooling opportunities. As with any asset, savers in the location asset transfer resources into the future by going to expensive locations with high future returns. In contrast, borrowers t...
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作者：Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; Primiceri, Giorgio E.
作者单位：Amazon.com; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We compare sparse and dense representations of predictive models in macroeconomics, microeconomics, and finance. To deal with a large number of possible predictors, we specify a prior that allows for both variable selection and shrinkage. The posterior distribution does not typically concentrate on a single sparse model, but on a wide set of models that often include many predictors.
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作者：Andrews, Isaiah; Shapiro, Jesse M.
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Brown University
摘要：We propose a positive model of empirical science in which an analyst makes a report to an audience after observing some data. Agents in the audience may differ in their beliefs or objectives, and may therefore update or act differently following a given report. We contrast the proposed model with a classical model of statistics in which the report directly determines the payoff. We identify settings in which the predictions of the proposed model differ from those of the classical model, and se...
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作者：Guvenen, Fatih; Karahan, Fatih; Ozkan, Serdar; Song, Jae
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Toronto
摘要：We study individual male earnings dynamics over the life cycle using panel data on millions of U.S. workers. Using nonparametric methods, we first show that the distribution of earnings changes exhibits substantial deviations from lognormality, such as negative skewness and very high kurtosis. Further, the extent of these nonnormalities varies significantly with age and earnings level, peaking around age 50 and between the 70th and 90th percentiles of the earnings distribution. Second, we esti...
