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作者：Farrell, Max H.; Liang, Tengyuan; Misra, Sanjog
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：We study deep neural networks and their use in semiparametric inference. We establish novel nonasymptotic high probability bounds for deep feedforward neural nets. These deliver rates of convergence that are sufficiently fast (in some cases minimax optimal) to allow us to establish valid second-step inference after first-step estimation with deep learning, a result also new to the literature. Our nonasymptotic high probability bounds, and the subsequent semiparametric inference, treat the curr...
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作者：Comin, Diego; Lashkari, Danial; Mestieri, Marti
作者单位：Dartmouth College; Boston College; Northwestern University
摘要：We present a new multi-sector growth model that features nonhomothetic, constant elasticity of substitution preferences, and accommodates long-run demand and supply drivers of structural change for an arbitrary number of sectors. The model is consistent with the decline in agriculture, the hump-shaped evolution of manufacturing, and the rise of services over time. We estimate the demand system derived from the model using household-level data from the United States and India, as well as histor...
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作者：Szeidl, Adam; Szucs, Ferenc
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Stockholm University
摘要：We use data from Hungary to establish two results about the relationship between the government and the media. (i) We document large advertising favors from the government to connected media, and large corruption coverage favors from connected media to the government. Our empirical strategy exploits sharp reallocations around changes in media ownership and other events to rule out market-based explanations. (ii) Under the assumptions of a structural model, we distinguish between owner ideology...
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作者：Athey, Susan; Wager, Stefan
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：In many areas, practitioners seek to use observational data to learn a treatment assignment policy that satisfies application-specific constraints, such as budget, fairness, simplicity, or other functional form constraints. For example, policies may be restricted to take the form of decision trees based on a limited set of easily observable individual characteristics. We propose a new approach to this problem motivated by the theory of semiparametrically efficient estimation. Our method can be...
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作者：Peivandi, Ahmad; Vohra, Rakesh V.
作者单位：Alphabet Inc.; Google Incorporated; University of Pennsylvania; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Centralized markets reduce search for buyers and sellers. Their thickness increases the chance of order execution at nearly competitive prices. In spite of the incentives to consolidate, some markets, securities markets and on-line advertising being the most notable, are fragmented into multiple trading venues. We argue that fragmentation is an inevitable feature of any centralized market except in special circumstances.
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作者：Vayanos, Dimitri; Vila, Jean-Luc
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We model the term structure of interest rates that results from the interaction between investors with preferences for specific maturities and risk-averse arbitrageurs. Shocks to the short rate are transmitted to long rates through arbitrageurs' carry trades. Arbitrageurs earn rents from transmitting the shocks through bond risk premia that relate positively to the slope of the term structure. When the short rate is the only risk factor, changes in investor demand have the same relative effect...
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作者：Sadler, Evan
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：We often make high stakes choices based on complex information that we have no way to verify. Careful Bayesian reasoning-assessing every reason why a claim could be false or misleading-is not feasible, so we necessarily act on faith: we trust certain sources and treat claims as if they were direct observations of payoff relevant events. This creates a challenge when trusted sources conflict: Practically speaking, is there a principled way to update beliefs in response to contradictory claims? ...
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作者：Kasy, Maximilian; Sautmann, Anja
作者单位：University of Oxford; The World Bank
摘要：Standard experimental designs are geared toward point estimation and hypothesis testing, while bandit algorithms are geared toward in-sample outcomes. Here, we instead consider treatment assignment in an experiment with several waves for choosing the best among a set of possible policies (treatments) at the end of the experiment. We propose a computationally tractable assignment algorithm that we call exploration sampling, where assignment probabilities in each wave are an increasing concave f...
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作者：Alesina, Alberto; Hohmann, Sebastian; Michalopoulos, Stelios; Papaioannou, Elias
作者单位：Harvard University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Brown University; University of London; London Business School; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We examine intergenerational mobility (IM) in educational attainment in Africa since independence using census data. First, we map IM across 27 countries and more than 2800 regions, documenting wide cross-country and especially within-country heterogeneity. Inertia looms large as differences in the literacy of the old generation explain about half of the observed spatial disparities in IM. The rural-urban divide is substantial. Though conspicuous in some countries, there is no evidence of syst...
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作者：Chambers, Christopher P.; Lambert, Nicolas S.
作者单位：Georgetown University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：At an initial time, an individual forms a belief about a future random outcome. As time passes, the individual may obtain, privately or subjectively, further information, until the outcome is eventually revealed. How can a protocol be devised that induces the individual, as a strict best response, to reveal at the outset his prior assessment of both the final outcome and the information flows he anticipates and, subsequently, what information he privately receives? The protocol can provide the...
