A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO UPDATING BELIEFS FROM CONTRADICTORY EVIDENCE
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Sadler, Evan
署名单位：
Columbia University
刊物名称：
ECONOMETRICA
ISSN/ISSBN：
0012-9682
DOI：
10.3982/ECTA17378
发表日期：
2021
页码：
415-436
关键词：
摘要：
We often make high stakes choices based on complex information that we have no way to verify. Careful Bayesian reasoning-assessing every reason why a claim could be false or misleading-is not feasible, so we necessarily act on faith: we trust certain sources and treat claims as if they were direct observations of payoff relevant events. This creates a challenge when trusted sources conflict: Practically speaking, is there a principled way to update beliefs in response to contradictory claims? I propose a model of belief formation along with several updating axioms. An impossibility theorem shows there is no obvious best answer, while a representation theorem delineates the boundary of what is possible.
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