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作者：Brooks, Benjamin; Frankel, Alexander; Kamenica, Emir
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Chicago
摘要：If experiment A is Blackwell more informative than experiment B, it is always possible that A and B are induced by signals A' and B' such that A' is a refinement of B', that is, A' entails observing B' plus some additional information. We first show that this result does not extend beyond pairs of experiments: There exist collections of experiments that cannot be induced by a collection of signals so that whenever two experiments are Blackwell ordered, the associated signals are refinement ord...
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作者：Peters, Michael
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Virtually all theories of economic growth predict a positive relationship between population size and productivity. In this paper, I study a particular historical episode to provide direct evidence for the empirical relevance of such scale effects. In the aftermath of the Second World War, 8 million ethnic Germans were expelled from their domiciles in Eastern Europe and transferred to West Germany. This inflow increased the German population by almost 20%. Using variation across counties, I sh...
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作者：Siniscalchi, Marciano
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：The analysis of dynamic games hinges on assumptions about players' actions and beliefs at information sets that are not expected to be reached during game play. Under the standard notion of sequential rationality, these assumptions cannot be tested on the basis of observed, on-path behavior. This paper introduces a novel optimality criterion, structural rationality, which addresses this concern. In any dynamic game, structural rationality implies weak sequential rationality (Reny (1992)). If p...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Restrepo, Pascual
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Boston University
摘要：We document that between 50% and 70% of changes in the U.S. wage structure over the last four decades are accounted for by relative wage declines of worker groups specialized in routine tasks in industries experiencing rapid automation. We develop a conceptual framework where tasks across industries are allocated to different types of labor and capital. Automation technologies expand the set of tasks performed by capital, displacing certain worker groups from jobs for which they have comparati...
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作者：Walton, Daniel; Carroll, Gabriel
作者单位：Uber Technologies, Inc.; University of Toronto
摘要：We study a class of models of moral hazard in which a principal contracts with a counterparty, which may have its own internal organizational structure. The principal has non-Bayesian uncertainty as to what actions might be taken in response to the contract, and wishes to maximize her worst-case payoff. We identify conditions on the counterparty's possible responses to any given contract that imply that a linear contract solves this maxmin problem. In conjunction with a Richness property motiv...
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作者：Barelli, Paulo; Bhattacharya, Sourav; Siga, Lucas
作者单位：University of Rochester; Indian Institute of Management (IIM System); Indian Institute of Management Calcutta; University of Essex
摘要：We study the problem of aggregating private information in elections with two or more alternatives for a large family of scoring rules. We introduce a feasibility condition, the linear refinement condition, that characterizes when information can be aggregated asymptotically as the electorate grows large: there must exist a utility function, linear in distributions over signals, sharing the same top alternative as the primitive utility function. Our results complement the existing work where s...
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作者：Attanasio, Orazio; Larkin, Kieran; Ravn, Morten O.; Padula, Mario
作者单位：Yale University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stockholm University; University of London; University College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Universita Ca Foscari Venezia
摘要：United States households' consumption expenditures and car purchases collapsed during the Great Recession and more so than income changes would have predicted. Using CEX data, we show that both the extensive and the intensive car spending margins contracted sharply in the Great Recession. We also document significant cross-cohort differences in the impact of the Great Recession including a stronger reduction in car spending by younger cohorts. We draw inference on the sources of the Great Rece...
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作者：Allen, Treb; Atkin, David
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Trade liberalization changes the volatility of returns by reducing the negative correlation between local prices and productivity shocks. In this paper, we explore these second-moment effects of trade. Using forty years of agricultural micro-data from India, we show that falling trade costs due to expansions of the Indian highway network reduced the responsiveness of local prices to local yields but increased the responsiveness of local prices to yields elsewhere. In response, farmers shifted ...
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作者：Kekre, Rohan; Lenel, Moritz
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study the transmission of monetary policy through risk premia in a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian environment. Heterogeneity in households' marginal propensity to take risk (MPR) summarizes differences in portfolio choice on the margin. An unexpected reduction in the nominal interest rate redistributes to households with high MPRs, lowering risk premia and amplifying the stimulus to the real economy. Quantitatively, this mechanism rationalizes the role of news about future excess returns...
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作者：McClellan, Andrew
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：We study the design of approval rules when costly experimentation must be delegated to an agent with misaligned preferences. When the agent has the option to end experimentation, we show that in contrast to standard stopping problems, the optimal approval rule must be history-dependent. We characterize the optimal rule and show the approval threshold moves downward over the course of experimentation. We find that private information may qualitatively change the optimal mechanism: an agent can ...
