-
作者：Chatterjee, Satyajit; Corbae, Dean; Dempsey, Kyle; Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Cambridge; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University of Pennsylvania; University of London; University College London
摘要：What is the role of credit scores in credit markets? We argue that it is, in part, the market's assessment of a person's unobservable type, which here we take to be patience. We postulate a model of persistent hidden types where observable actions shape the public assessment of a person's type via Bayesian updating. We show how dynamic reputation can incentivize repayment. Importantly, we show how an economy with credit scores implements the same equilibrium allocation. We estimate the model u...
-
作者：Mckay, Alisdair; Wolf, Christian K.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We show that, in a general family of linearized structural macroeconomic models, knowledge of the empirically estimable causal effects of contemporaneous and news shocks to the prevailing policy rule is sufficient to construct counterfactuals under alternative policy rules. If the researcher is willing to postulate a loss function, our results furthermore allow her to recover an optimal policy rule for that loss. Under our assumptions, the derived counterfactuals and optimal policies are robus...
-
作者：Johnson, Justin P.; Rhodes, Andrew; Wildenbeest, Matthijs
作者单位：Cornell University; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Arizona
摘要：We investigate the ability of a platform to design its marketplace to promote competition, improve consumer surplus, and increase its own payoff. We consider demand-steering rules that reward firms that cut prices with additional exposure to consumers. We examine the impact of these rules both in theory and by using simulations with artificial intelligence pricing algorithms (specifically Q-learning algorithms, which are commonly used in computer science). Our theoretical results indicate that...
-
作者：Hong, Harrison; Wang, Neng; Yang, Jinqiang
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; Shanghai Institute of International Finance & Economics
摘要：Emissions abatement alone cannot address the consequences of global warming for weather disasters. We model how society adapts to manage disaster risks to capital stock. Optimal adaptation-a mix of firm-level efforts and public spending-varies as society learns about the adverse consequences of global warming for disaster arrivals. Taxes on capital are needed alongside those on carbon to achieve the first best. We apply our model to country-level control of flooding from tropical cyclones. Lea...
-
作者：Guo, Yingni; Shmaya, Eran
作者单位：Northwestern University; State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University
摘要：An agent observes the set of available projects and proposes some, but not necessarily all, of them. A principal chooses one or none from the proposed set. We solve for a mechanism that minimizes the principal's worst-case regret. We compare the single-project environment in which the agent can propose only one project with the multiproject environment in which he can propose many. In both environments, if the agent proposes one project, it is chosen for sure if the principal's payoff is suffi...
-
作者：Terry, Stephen J.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：R&D investment reduces current profits, so short-term pressure to hit profit targets may distort R&D. In the data, firms just meeting Wall Street forecasts have lower R&D growth and subsequent innovation, while managers just missing receive lower pay. But short-termist distortions might not quantitatively matter if aggregation or equilibrium dampen their impact. So I build and estimate a quantitative endogenous growth model in which short-termism arises naturally as discipline on conflicted ma...
-
作者：Beaman, Lori; Karlan, Dean; Thuysbaert, Bram; Udry, Christopher
作者单位：Northwestern University; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We use a two-stage experiment on agricultural lending in Mali to test whether selection into lending is predictive of heterogeneous returns to capital. Understanding this heterogeneity, and the selection process which reveals it, is critical for guiding modeling of credit markets in developing countries, as well as for policy. We find such heterogeneity: returns to capital are higher for farmers who borrow than for those who do not. In our first stage, we offer loans in some villages and not o...
-
作者：Sugaya, Takuo; Wolitzky, Alexander
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We study how discounting and monitoring jointly determine whether cooperation is possible in repeated games with imperfect (public or private) monitoring. Our main result provides a simple bound on the strength of players' incentives as a function of discounting, monitoring precision, and on-path payoff variance. We show that the bound is tight in the low-discounting/low-monitoring double limit, by establishing a public-monitoring folk theorem where the discount factor and the monitoring struc...
-
作者：Kocherlakota, Narayana R.
作者单位：University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper shows that there is more scope for a borrower to engage in a sustainable infinite debt rollover (a Ponzi scheme) when interest/growth rates are stochastic. In this context, I prove that the relevant r vs. g comparison uses the yield rlong to an infinite-maturity zero-coupon bond. I show that rlong is lower than the risk-neutral expectation of the short-term yield when it is variable, and that rlong is close to the minimal realization of the short-term yield when it is highly persist...
-
作者：Gonzales, Luis E.; Ito, Koichiro; Reguant, Mar
作者单位：Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Northwestern University
摘要：We study the investment effects of market integration on renewable energy expansion. Our theory highlights that market integration not only improves allocative efficiency by gains from trade but also incentivizes new investment in renewable power plants. To test our theoretical predictions, we examine how recent grid expansions in the Chilean electricity market changed electricity production, wholesale prices, generation costs, and renewable investments. We then build a structural model of pow...
