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作者：Sargent, Thomas; Williams, Noah; Zha, Tao
作者单位：New York University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University
摘要：We infer determinants of Latin American hyperinflations and stabilizations by using the method of maximum likelihood to estimate a hidden Markov model that assigns roles both to fundamentals in the form of government deficits that are financed by money creation and to destabilizing expectations dynamics that can occasionally divorce inflation from fundamentals. Levels and conditional volatilities of monetized deficits drove most hyperinflations and stabilizations, with a notable exception in P...
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作者：Drago, Francesco; Galbiati, Roberto; Vertova, Pietro
作者单位：Parthenope University Naples; Bocconi University; University of Bergamo
摘要：The Collective Clemency Bill passed by the Italian Parliament in July 2006 represents a natural experiment to analyze the behavioral response of individuals to an exogenous manipulation of prison sentences. On the basis of a unique data set on the postrelease behavior of former inmates, we find that 1 month less time served in prison commuted into 1 month more in expected sentence for future crimes reduces the probability of recidivism by 0.16 percentage points. From this result we estimate an...
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作者：Hall, Robert E.
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Recessions appear to be times when the marginal rate of substitution between goods and workers' time falls below the marginal product of labor. If so, the allocation of workers' time is inefficient. I develop a model of households and production that reconciles cyclical movements in the marginal value of time and the marginal product. The model embodies the findings of research that the Frisch elasticity of labor supply is less than one. It treats unemployment in a search-and-matching setup. R...
