The Conquest of South American Inflation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Sargent, Thomas; Williams, Noah; Zha, Tao
• 署名单位: New York University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/599014
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 211-256
• 关键词: time-series; Seigniorage

摘要

We infer determinants of Latin American hyperinflations and stabilizations by using the method of maximum likelihood to estimate a hidden Markov model that assigns roles both to fundamentals in the form of government deficits that are financed by money creation and to destabilizing expectations dynamics that can occasionally divorce inflation from fundamentals. Levels and conditional volatilities of monetized deficits drove most hyperinflations and stabilizations, with a notable exception in Peru, where a cosmetic reform of the type emphasized by Marcet and Nicolini occurred.