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作者：Yildiz, M
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Yale University
摘要：I analyze a sequential bargaining model in which players are optimistic about their bargaining power (measured as the probability of making offers), but learn as they play the game. I show that there exists a uniquely predetermined settlement date, such that in equilibrium the players always reach an agreement at that date, but never reach one before it. Given any discount rate, if the learning is sufficiently slow, the players agree immediately. 1 show that, for any speed of learning, the agr...
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作者：Bertrand, M; Duflo, E; Mullainathan, S
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Most papers that employ Differences-in-Differences estimation (DD) use many years of data and focus on serially correlated outcomes but ignore that the resulting standard errors are inconsistent. To illustrate the severity of this issue, we randomly generate placebo laws in state-level data on female wages from the Current Population Survey. For each law, we use OLS to compute the DD estimate of its effect as well as the standard error of this estimate. These conventional DD standard errors se...
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作者：Reinhart, CM; Rogoff, KS
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Harvard University
摘要：We develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes. One key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market-determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries. Our approach differs from the IMF official classification (which we show to be only a little better than random); it also differs radically from all previous attempts at historical reclassification. Our classification points to a rethinking ...
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作者：Niepelt, D
作者单位：Stockholm University
摘要：I examine the fiscal theory of the price level according to which non-Ricardian policy and predetermined nominal government debt fiscally determine prices. I argue that the non-Ricardian policy assumption and, by implication, fiscal price level determination are inconsistent with an equilibrium in which all asset holdings reflect optimal household choices. In such an equilibrium, policy must be Ricardian even if, in some states of nature, the government defaults or commits to an arbitrary real...
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作者：Besley, T; Burgess, R
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This paper investigates whether the industrial relations climate in Indian states has affected the pattern of manufacturing growth in the period 1958-1992. We show that states which amended the Industrial Disputes Act in a pro-worker direction experienced lowered output, employment, investment, and productivity in registered or formal manufacturing. In contrast, output in unregistered or informal manufacturing increased. Regulating in a pro-worker direction was also associated with increases i...
