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作者：Kozlowski, Julian; Veldkamp, Laura; Venkateswaran, Venky
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The Great Recession was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit, employment, and output. While narratives about its causes abound, the persistence of gross domestic product below precrisis trends remains puzzling. We propose a simple persistence mechanism that can be quantified and combined with existing models. Our key premise is that agents do not know the true distribution of shocks but use data to estimate it nonparametrically. Then, transitory events, especially extreme ones, ...
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作者：Monras, Joan
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：How does the US labor market absorb low-skilled immigration? In the short run, high-immigration locations see their low-skilled labor force increase, native low-skilled wages decrease, and the relative price of rentals increase. Internal relocation dissipates this shock spatially. In the long run, the only lasting consequences are (a) worse labor market conditions for low-skilled natives who entered the labor force in high-immigration years, and (b) lower housing prices in high-immigrant locat...
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作者：Brownback, Andy; Sadoff, Sally
作者单位：University of Arkansas System; University of Arkansas Fayetteville; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：In a field experiment, we examine the impact of performance-based incentives for community college instructors. Instructor incentives improve student exam scores, course grades, and credit accumulation while reducing course dropout. Effects are largest among part-time adjunct instructors. During the program, instructor incentives have large positive spillovers, increasing completion rates and grades in students' courses outside our study. One year after the program, instructor incentives incre...
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作者：Gandhi, Amit; Navarro, Salvador; Rivers, David A.
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Western University (University of Western Ontario)
摘要：We study the nonparametric identification of gross output production functions under the environment of the commonly employed proxy variable methods. We show that applying these methods to gross output requires additional sources of variation in the demand for flexible inputs (e.g., prices). Using a transformation of the firm's first-order condition, we develop a new nonparametric identification strategy for gross output that can be employed even when additional sources of variation are not av...
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作者：Baliga, Sandeep; Sjostrom, Tomas
作者单位：Northwestern University; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：Using a simple bargaining game, we investigate how strategic interactions are shaped by preferences, technology, and endowments. We study whether changes in relative military capabilities make conflicts more likely and find a nonmonotonic relationship between the cost of conflict and the probability of conflict. The game has strategic complements if the cost of conflict is small and there is a large first-mover advantage and has strategic substitutes otherwise. This characterization generates ...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Cheema, Ali; Khwaja, Asim, I; Robinson, James A.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Lahore University of Management Sciences; Harvard University
摘要：This paper investigates whether information about improved public services can help build trust in state institutions and move people away from nonstate actors. We find that (truthful) information about reduced delays in state courts in rural Pakistan leads to citizens reporting higher likelihood of using them and to greater allocations to the state in high-stakes lab games. We also find negative indirect effects on nonstate actors and show that these changes are a response to improved beliefs...
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作者：Campbell, John Y.; Pflueger, Carolin; Viceira, Luis M.
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; Harvard University
摘要：Our new model of consumption-based habit generates time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks from log-linear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly log-linear consumption Euler equation, commonly assumed in New Keynesian models. We estimate that the correlation between inflation and the output gap switched from negative to positive in 2001. Higher inflation lowers real bond returns, and higher output raises st...
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作者：Mourifie, Ismael; Henry, Marc; Meango, Romuald
作者单位：University of Toronto; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Max Planck Society
摘要：We analyze the empirical content of the Roy model, stripped down to sector-specific unobserved heterogeneity and self-selection on the basis of potential outcomes. We characterize sharp bounds on the joint distribution of potential outcomes and testable implications of the Roy model. We apply these bounds to derive a measure of departure from Roy self-selection, so as to identify prime targets for intervention. Special emphasis is put on the case of binary outcomes. We analyze a Roy model of c...
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作者：Bidwell, Kelly; Casey, Katherine; Glennerster, Rachel
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Candidate debates have a rich history and remain integral to contemporary campaign strategy. There is, however, little evidence that they affect the behavior of voters or politicians. The scarcity of political information in the developing world offers an attractive testing ground. Using experimental variation in Sierra Leone, we find that public debate screenings build political knowledge that changes the way people vote, which induces a campaign expenditure response by candidates and fosters...
