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作者：Lipnowski, Elliot; Ravid, Doron; Shishkin, Denis
作者单位：Columbia University; University of Chicago; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：A sender commissions a study to persuade a receiver but influences the report with some probability. We show that increasing this probability can benefit the receiver and can lead to a discontinuous drop in the sender's payoffs. To derive our results, we geometrically characterize the sender's highest equilibrium payoff, which is based on the concavification of a capped value function.
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作者：Fe, Eduardo; Gill, David; Prowse, Victoria
作者单位：University of Manchester; Purdue University System; Purdue University
摘要：We investigate how childhood cognitive skills affect strategic sophistication and adult outcomes, and we emphasize the importance of childhood theory of mind. Experimental data show that (i) theory-of-mind ability and cognitive ability both predict level k behavior, (ii) older children respond to information about the cognitive ability of their opponent, and (iii) theory of mind (but not cognitive ability) predicts whether children respond to intentions. Using longitudinal data, we find that c...
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作者：Doran, Kirk; Gelber, Alexander; Isen, Adam
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; United States Department of the Treasury
摘要：We compare winning and losing firms in lotteries for H-1B visas, matching administrative data on these lotteries to administrative tax data on US firms and to approved US patents. Winning one additional H-1B visa crowds out about 1.5 other workers at the firm. Additional H-1Bs have insignificant and at most modest effects on firm innovation. More general evidence from the universe of US firms and the universe of H-1B visas using alternative estimation strategies is consistent with these result...
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作者：Martinez, Luis R.
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：I study the overstatement of economic growth in autocracies by comparing self-reported GDP figures to night-time light recorded by satellites from outer space. I show that the night-time-light elasticity of GDP is larger in authoritarian regimes, even accounting for differences in multiple country characteristics. This autocracy gradient in the elasticity is greater when the incentive to exaggerate economic growth is stronger or when the constraints on exaggeration are weaker. The results sugg...
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作者：Gillingham, Kenneth; Iskhakov, Fedor; Munk-Nielsen, Anders; Rust, John; Schjerning, Bertel
作者单位：Yale University; Australian National University; University of Copenhagen; Georgetown University
摘要：We introduce a computationally tractable dynamic equilibrium model of automobile markets with heterogeneous consumers, focused on stationary flow equilibria. We introduce a fast, robust algorithm for computing equilibria and use it to estimate a model using nearly 39 million observations on car ownership transitions from Denmark. The estimated model fits the data well, and counterfactual simulations show that Denmark could raise total tax revenue by reducing the new-car registration tax rate. ...
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作者：de Clippel, Geoffroy; Zhang, Xu
作者单位：Brown University; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology (Guangzhou); Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：Following Kamenica and Gentzkow, this paper studies persuasion as an information design problem. We investigate how mistakes in probabilistic inference impact optimal persuasion. The concavification method is shown to extend naturally to a large class of belief updating rules, which we identify and characterize. This class comprises many non-Bayesian models discussed in the literature. We apply this new technique to gain insight into the revelation principle, the ranking of updating rules, whe...
