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作者：Araujo, M. Caridad; Carneiro, Pedro; Cruz-Aguayo, Yyannu; Schady, Norbert
作者单位：Inter-American Development Bank; University of London; University College London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We assigned two cohorts of kindergarten students, totaling more than 24,000 children, to teachers within schools with a rule that is as good as random. We collected data on children at the beginning of the school year and applied 12 tests of math, language, and executive function (EF) at the end of the year. All teachers were filmed teaching for a full day, and the videos were coded using the Classroom Assessment Scoring System (or CLASS). We find substantial classroom effects: A 1 standard de...
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作者：Ponticelli, Jacopo; Alencar, Leonardo S.
作者单位：University of Chicago; Central Bank of Brazil
摘要：We exploit variation in the congestion of civil courts across Brazilian municipalities, together with a bankruptcy reform increasing secured creditors' protection, to estimate the effect of enforcement on firm access to finance, investment, and size. We find that firms operating in municipalities with less congested courts experienced a larger increase in the use of secured loans, as well as a larger increase in investment and value of output in the years after the reform. To establish the dir...
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作者：Barrot, Jean-Noel; Sauvagnat, Julien
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：This article examines whether firm-level idiosyncratic shocks propagate in production networks. We identify idiosyncratic shocks with the occurrence of natural disasters. We find that affected suppliers impose substantial output losses on their customers, especially when they produce specific inputs. These output losses translate into significant market value losses, and they spill over to other suppliers. Our point estimates are economically large, suggesting that input specificity is an impo...
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作者：Spiegler, Ran
作者单位：Tel Aviv University; University of London; University College London
摘要：I present a framework for analyzing decision making under imperfect understanding of correlation structures and causal relations. A decision maker (DM) faces an objective long-run probability distribution p over several variables (including the action taken by previous DMs). The DM is characterized by a subjective causal model, represented by a directed acyclic graph over the set of variable labels. The DM attempts to fit this model to p, resulting in a subjective belief that distorts p by fac...
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作者：Chen, Daniel L.; Moskowitz, Tobias J.; Shue, Kelly
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We find consistent evidence of negative autocorrelation in decision making that is unrelated to the merits of the cases considered in three separate high-stakes field settings: refugee asylum court decisions, loan application reviews, and Major League Baseball umpire pitch calls. The evidence is most consistent with the law of small numbers and the gambler's fallacy-people underestimating the likelihood of sequential streaks occurring by chance-leading to negatively autocorrelated decisions th...
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作者：Bleakley, Hoyt; Ferrie, Joseph
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University
摘要：Does the lack of wealth constrain parents' investments in the human capital of their descendants? We conduct a nearly 50-year follow-up of an episode in which such constraints would have been plausibly relaxed by a random allocation of substantial wealth to families. We track descendants of participants in Georgia's Cherokee Land Lottery of 1832, in which nearly every adult white male in the state took part. Winners received close to the median level of wealth-a large financial windfall orthog...
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作者：Hottman, Colin J.; Redding, Stephen J.; Weinstein, David E.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Columbia University
摘要：We develop and structurally estimate a model of heterogeneous multiproduct firms that can be used to decompose the firm-size distribution into the contributions of costs, appeal (quality or taste), markups, and product scope. Using Nielsen barcode data on prices and sales, we find that variation in firm appeal and product scope explains at least four fifths of the variation in firm sales. We show that the imperfect substitutability of products within firms, and the fact that larger firms suppl...
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作者：Broner, Fernando; Ventura, Jaume
作者单位：Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：During the past three decades, many countries have lifted restrictions on cross-border financial transactions. We present a simple model that can account for the observed effects of financial globalization. The model emphasizes the role of imperfect enforcement of domestic debts and the interactions between domestic and foreign debts. Financial globalization can lead to a variety of outcomes: (i) domestic capital flight and ambiguous effects on net capital flows, investment, and growth; (ii) c...
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作者：Kirkeboen, Lars J.; Leuven, Edwin; Mogstad, Magne
作者单位：Statistics Norway; University of Oslo; University of Chicago
摘要：This article examines the labor market payoffs to different types of postsecondary education, including field and institution of study. Instrumental variables (IV) estimation of the payoff to choosing one type of education compared to another is made particularly challenging by individuals choosing between several types of education. Not only does identification require one instrument per alternative, but it is also necessary to deal with the issue that individuals who choose the same educatio...
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作者：Fajgelbaum, Pablo D.; Khandelwal, Amit K.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
摘要：Individuals that consume different baskets of goods are differentially affected by relative price changes caused by international trade. We develop a methodology to measure the unequal gains from trade across consumers within countries. The approach requires data on aggregate expenditures and parameters estimated from a nonhomothetic gravity equation. We find that trade typically favors the poor, who concentrate spending in more traded sectors.
