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作者：Barrot, Jean-Noel; Sauvagnat, Julien
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：This article examines whether firm-level idiosyncratic shocks propagate in production networks. We identify idiosyncratic shocks with the occurrence of natural disasters. We find that affected suppliers impose substantial output losses on their customers, especially when they produce specific inputs. These output losses translate into significant market value losses, and they spill over to other suppliers. Our point estimates are economically large, suggesting that input specificity is an impo...
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作者：Spiegler, Ran
作者单位：Tel Aviv University; University of London; University College London
摘要：I present a framework for analyzing decision making under imperfect understanding of correlation structures and causal relations. A decision maker (DM) faces an objective long-run probability distribution p over several variables (including the action taken by previous DMs). The DM is characterized by a subjective causal model, represented by a directed acyclic graph over the set of variable labels. The DM attempts to fit this model to p, resulting in a subjective belief that distorts p by fac...
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作者：Finkelstein, Amy; Gentzkow, Matthew; Williams, Heidi
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：We study the drivers of geographic variation in U.S. health care utilization, using an empirical strategy that exploits migration of Medicare patients to separate the role of demand and supply factors. Our approach allows us to account for demand differences driven by both observable and unobservable patient characteristics. Within our sample of over-65 Medicare beneficiaries, we find that 40-50% of geographic variation in utilization is attributable to demand-side factors, including health an...
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作者：Chen, Daniel L.; Moskowitz, Tobias J.; Shue, Kelly
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We find consistent evidence of negative autocorrelation in decision making that is unrelated to the merits of the cases considered in three separate high-stakes field settings: refugee asylum court decisions, loan application reviews, and Major League Baseball umpire pitch calls. The evidence is most consistent with the law of small numbers and the gambler's fallacy-people underestimating the likelihood of sequential streaks occurring by chance-leading to negatively autocorrelated decisions th...
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作者：Adda, Jerome
作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：Viruses are a major threat to human health, and-given that they spread through social interactions-represent a costly externality. This article addresses three main questions: (i) what are the unintended consequences of economic activity on the spread of infections; (ii) how efficient are measures that limit interpersonal contacts; (iii) how do we allocate our scarce resources to limit the spread of infections? To answer these questions, we use novel high frequency data from France on the inci...
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作者：Saez, Emmanuel; Zucman, Gabriel
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper combines income tax returns with macroeconomic household balance sheets to estimate the distribution of wealth in the United States since 1913. We estimate wealth by capitalizing the incomes reported by individual taxpayers, accounting for assets that do not generate taxable income. We successfully test our capitalization method in three micro datasets where we can observe both income and wealth: the Survey of Consumer Finance, linked estate and income tax returns, and foundations' ...
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作者：Baird, Sarah; Hicks, Joan Hamory; Kremer, Michael; Miguel, Edward
作者单位：George Washington University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This study estimates long-run impacts of a child health investment, exploiting community-wide experimental variation in school-based deworming. The program increased labor supply among men and education among women, with accompanying shifts in labor market specialization. Ten years after deworming treatment, men who were eligible as boys stay enrolled for more years of primary school, work 17% more hours each week, spend more time in nonagricultural self-employment, are more likely to hold man...
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作者：Cesarini, David; Lindqvist, Erik; Ostling, Robert; Wallace, Bjorn
作者单位：New York University; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); National Bureau of Economic Research; Stockholm School of Economics; Stockholm University; University of Cambridge
摘要：We use administrative data on Swedish lottery players to estimate the causal impact of substantial wealth shocks on players' own health and their children's health and developmental outcomes. Our estimation sample is large, virtually free of attrition, and allows us to control for the factors conditional on which the prizes were randomly assigned. In adults, we find no evidence that wealth impacts mortality or health care utilization, with the possible exception of a small reduction in the con...
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作者：Gelber, Alexander; Isen, Adam; Kessler, Judd B.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; United States Department of the Treasury; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Programs to encourage labor market activity among youth, including public employment programs and wage subsidies like the Work Opportunity Tax Credit, can be supported by three broad rationales. They may (i) provide contemporaneous income support to participants; (ii) encourage work experience that improves future employment and/or educational outcomes of participants; and/or (iii) keep participants out of trouble. We study randomized lotteries for access to the New York City (NYC) Summer Yout...
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作者：Bordalo, Pedro; Coffman, Katherine; Gennaioli, Nicola; Shleifer, Andrei
作者单位：University of Oxford; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; Harvard University; Bocconi University; Harvard University
摘要：We present a model of stereotypes based on Kahneman and Tversky's representativeness heuristic. A decision maker assesses a target group by overweighting its representative types, defined as the types that occur more frequently in that group than in a baseline reference group. Stereotypes formed this way contain a kernel of truth: they are rooted in true differences between groups. Because stereotypes focus on differences, they cause belief distortions, particularly when groups are similar. St...
