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作者：Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; La Porta, Rafael; Shleifer, Andrei
作者单位：University of Oxford; Bocconi University; Brown University; Harvard University
摘要：We construct an index of long-term expected earnings growth for S&P 500 firms and show that it has remarkable power to jointly predict future errors in expectations and stock returns, in both the aggregate market and the cross section. The evidence supports a mechanism whereby good news causes investors to become too optimistic about long-term earnings growth. This leads to inflated stock prices and, as beliefs are systematically disappointed, subsequent low returns in the aggregate market. Ov...
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作者：Best, James; Quigley, Daniel
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University; University of Oxford
摘要：We examine persuasion when the sole source of credibility today is a desire to maintain a public record for accuracy. A long-run sender plays a cheap talk game with a sequence of short-run receivers, who observe some record of feedback about past accuracy. When all feedback is public (as is standard in repeated games), persuasion frequently requires inefficient on-path punishment-even if accuracy is monitored perfectly. If instead the record publishes coarse summary statistics (as is common on...
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作者：Nocke, Volker; Rey, Patrick
作者单位：University of Mannheim; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics
摘要：We develop a model of within-firm sequential, directed search and study a firm's ability and incentive to steer consumers. We find that the firm often benefits from adopting a noisy positioning strategy, which limits the information available to consumers. This induces consumers to keep searching but discourages some of them from visiting the firm. This occurs even though the firm and the consumers have in common an interest in maximizing the probability of trade. Because of such noisy positio...
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作者：Born, Benjamin; D'Ascanio, Francesco; Mueller, Gernot J.; Pfeifer, Johannes
作者单位：Frankfurt School Finance & Management; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Accenture; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Bundeswehr University Munich
摘要：In economies with fixed exchange rates, the adjustment to government-spending shocks is asymmetric. Expansionary shocks are absorbed by the real exchange rate, contractionary shocks by output. This result emerges in a small open-economy model with downward nominal wage rigidity and is supported by new empirical evidence based on panel data from different exchange-rate regimes. The exchange-rate regime, economic slack, inflation, and how spending is financed all matter for the fiscal transmissi...
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作者：Baldauf, Markus; Mollner, Joshua
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Northwestern University
摘要：When seeking to trade in over-the-counter markets, institutional investors typically restrict both the number of potential counterparties they contact and the information they disclose (e.g., by requesting two-sided rather than one-sided quotes). We rationalize these important facts in a model featuring endogenous front-running. Although an additional contact intensifies competition and aids in finding a natural counterparty, it also intensifies information leakage-which can be costly if it he...
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作者：Bisin, Alberto; Verdier, Thierry
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We provide an abstract model of the interaction between culture and political institutions. The model is designed to study the political economy of elites and civil society on the determination of long-run socioeconomic activity. We characterize conditions such that the cultural traits of elites and civil society and the institutions determining their relative political power complement (substitute) each other, giving rise to a multiplier effect that amplifies (dampens) their combined ability ...
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作者：Ganimian, Alejandro J.; Muralidharan, Karthik; Walters, Christopher R.
作者单位：New York University; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We use a large-scale randomized experiment to study the impact of augmenting staffing in the world's largest public early-childhood program: India's Integrated Child Development Services. Adding a worker doubled net preschool instructional time and led to increases of 0.28 sigma and 0.46 sigma in math and language test scores after 18 months for children who remained enrolled in the program and 0.13 sigma and 0.10 sigma for all children enrolled at baseline. Rates of stunting and severe malnut...
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作者：Lerner, Josh; Seru, Amit; Short, Nicholas; Sun, Yuan
作者单位：Harvard University; Stanford University; Princeton University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：We explore the evolution of financial innovation using US finance patents. Patented financial innovations are substantial and increasingly economically important. Their subject matter has changed, consistent with the industry's shift toward household investors and borrowers. Information technology (IT) and other nonfinancial firms drove the surge in financial patenting. The location of innovation shifted, with banks moving activity away from states with tight financial regulation and high-tech...
