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作者：Lerner, Josh; Seru, Amit; Short, Nicholas; Sun, Yuan
作者单位：Harvard University; Stanford University; Princeton University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：We explore the evolution of financial innovation using US finance patents. Patented financial innovations are substantial and increasingly economically important. Their subject matter has changed, consistent with the industry's shift toward household investors and borrowers. Information technology (IT) and other nonfinancial firms drove the surge in financial patenting. The location of innovation shifted, with banks moving activity away from states with tight financial regulation and high-tech...
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作者：Burkhauser, Richard V.; Corinth, Kevin; Elwell, James; Larrimore, Jeff
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; IZA Institute Labor Economics; American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We evaluate progress in the War on Poverty as President Lyndon B. Johnson defined it, which established a 20% baseline poverty rate and adopted an absolute standard. While the official poverty rate fell from 19.5% in 1963 to 10.5% in 2019, our absolute full-income poverty measure-which uses a fuller income measure and updates thresholds only for inflation-fell from 19.5% to 1.6%. However, we also show that relative poverty reductions have been modest. Additionally, government dependence increa...
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作者：Chang, Minsu; Chen, Xiaohong; Schorfheide, Frank
作者单位：Seoul National University (SNU); Yale University; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a state-space model with a transition equation that takes the form of a functional vector autoregression (VAR) and stacks macroeconomic aggregates and a cross-sectional density. The measurement equation captures the error in estimating log densities from repeated cross-sectional samples. The log densities and their transition kernels are approximated by sieves, which leads to a finite-dimensional VAR for macroeconomic aggregates and sieve coefficients. With this model, we study the ...
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作者：Noack, Frederik; Costello, Christopher
作者单位：University of British Columbia; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Credit markets and property rights are fundamental for modern economies, but their implications for the commons are unknown. Using a dynamic model of competitive resource extraction, we show that improving property right security unambiguously increases conservation incentives, but the effect of credit markets on resource extraction effort hinges on the security of property rights. We test these predictions using data on global fisheries, credit markets, and the largest ever marine property ri...
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作者：di Giovanni, Julian; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Mejean, Isabelle
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po)
摘要：This paper uses a dataset covering the universe of French firm-level value-added, imports, and exports and a quantitative multicountry heterogeneous firm model to study the propagation of foreign shocks to the domestic economy. Foreign shocks are transmitted primarily through large firms as they are the most likely to trade internationally. At the micro level, the majority of the GDP impact of foreign shocks is accounted for by the foreign granular residual, a statistic capturing larger firms'...
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作者：Ek, Andreas
作者单位：Lund University
摘要：This paper estimates differences in human capital as country-of-origin-specific labor productivity terms in firm production functions, making it immune to wage discrimination concerns. After accounting for education and experience, estimated human capital varies by a factor of around three between the 90th and the 10th percentile. When I investigate which country-of-origin characteristics most closely correlate with human capital, cultural values are the only robust predictor. This relationshi...
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作者：Farmer, Leland E.; Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jon
作者单位：University of Virginia; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Forecasts of professional forecasters are anomalous: they are biased, and forecast errors are autocorrelated and predictable by forecast revisions. We propose that these anomalies arise because professional forecasters do not know the model that generates the data. We show that Bayesian agents learning about hard-to-learn features of the world can generate all the prominent aggregate anomalies emphasized in the literature. We show this for professional forecasts of nominal interest rates and C...
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作者：Budish, Eric; Lee, Robin S.; Shim, John J.
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; University of Notre Dame
摘要：Will stock exchanges innovate to address latency arbitrage and the arms race for speed? This paper models how exchanges compete in the modern electronic era and how this shapes incentives for market-design innovation. In the status quo, exchange trading fees are competitive, but exchanges earn economic rents from selling speed. These rents create a wedge between private and social incentives to innovate and support the persistence of an inefficient market design in equilibrium of a market-desi...
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作者：Colonnelli, Emanuele; Li, Bo; Liu, Ernest
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Peking University; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We conduct a large-scale, nondeceptive field experiment to elicit preferences for government participation in China's venture capital and private equity market. Our main result is that the average firm dislikes investors with government ties. We show that such dislike is not present with government-owned firms and that this dislike is highest with best-performing firms. Additional results and surveys suggest that political interference in decision-making is the leading reason why government in...
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作者：Englmaier, Florian; Grimm, Stefan; Grothe, Dominik; Schindler, David; Schudy, Simeon
作者单位：University of Munich; Tilburg University; Ulm University
摘要：Despite the prevalence of nonroutine analytical team tasks in modern economies, little is understood regarding how incentives influence performance in these tasks. In a series of field experiments involving more than 5,000 participants, we investigate how incentives alter behavior in teams working on such a task. We document a positive effect of bonus incentives on performance, even among teams with strong intrinsic motivation. Bonuses also transform team organization by enhancing the demand f...
