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作者：Young, Alwyn
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：I follow R. A. Fisher's The Design of Experiments (1935), using randomization statistical inference to test the null hypothesis of no treatment effects in a comprehensive sample of 53 experimental papers drawn from the journals of the American Economic Association. In the average paper, randomization tests of the significance of individual treatment effects find 13% to 22% fewer significant results than are found using authors' methods. In joint tests of multiple treatment effects appearing to...
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作者：Cantoni, Davide; Yang, David Y.; Yuchtman, Noam; Zhang, Y. Jane
作者单位：University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Harvard University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; National Bureau of Economic Research; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：Social scientists have long viewed the decision to protest as strategic, with an individual's participation a function of their beliefs about others' turnout. We conduct a framed field experiment that recalibrates individuals' beliefs about others' protest participation, in the context of Hong Kong's ongoing antiauthoritarian movement. We elicit subjects' planned participation in an upcoming protest and their prior beliefs about others' participation, in an incentivized manner. One day before ...
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作者：Rogerson, Richard; Wallenius, Johanna
作者单位：Princeton University; Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：Using the Consumption Activities Mail Survey (CAMS) module in the HRS, we document how individual time allocations change when one or more household members transitions from full-time work to not working. We find that the ratio of home production to leisure time is approximately constant for both family members. Using a model of household labor supply to understand the implications of this finding, we conclude that the elasticity of substitution between the leisure of the two members is quite ...
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作者：Enke, Benjamin
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Across the social sciences, a key question is how societies manage to enforce cooperative behavior in social dilemmas such as public goods provision or bilateral trade. According to an influential body of theories in psychology, anthropology, and evolutionary biology, the answer is that humans have evolved moral systems: packages of functional psychological and biological mechanisms that regulate economic behavior, including a belief in moralizing gods; moral values; negative reciprocity; and ...
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作者：Bell, Alex; Chetty, Raj; Jaravel, Xavier; Petkova, Neviana; Van Reenen, John
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; United States Department of the Treasury; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We characterize the factors that determine who becomes an inventor in the United States, focusing on the role of inventive ability (nature) versus environment (nurture). Using deidentified data on 1.2 million inventors from patent records linked to tax records, we first show that children's chances of becoming inventors vary sharply with characteristics at birth, such as their race, gender, and parents' socioeconomic class. For example, children from high-income (top 1%) families are 10 times ...
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作者：Blouin, Arthur; Macchiavello, Rocco
作者单位：University of Toronto; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This article studies strategic default on forward sale contracts in the international coffee market. To test for strategic default, we construct contract-specific measures of unanticipated changes in market conditions by comparing spot prices at maturity with the relevant futures prices at the contracting date. Unanticipated rises in market prices increase defaults on fixed-price contracts but not on price-indexed ones. We isolate strategic default by focusing on unanticipated rises at the tim...
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作者：Ilzetzki, Ethan; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Rogoff, Kenneth S.
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Harvard University
摘要：This article provides a comprehensive history of anchor or reference currencies, exchange rate arrangements, and a new measure of foreign exchange restrictions for 194 countries and territories over 1946-2016. We find that the often cited post-Bretton Woods transition from fixed to flexible arrangements is overstated; regimes with limited flexibility remain in the majority. Even if central bankers' communications jargon has evolved considerably in recent decades, it is apparent that many still...
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作者：Burke, Marshall; Bergquist, Lauren Falcao; Miguel, Edward
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Large and regular seasonal price fluctuations in local grain markets appear to offer African farmers substantial intertemporal arbitrage opportunities, but these opportunities remain largely unexploited. Small-scale farmers are commonly observed to sell low and buy high, rather than the reverse. In a field experiment in Kenya, we show that credit market imperfections limit farmers' abilities to move grain intertemporally. Providing timely access to credit allows farmers to buy at lower prices ...
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作者：Costinot, Arnaud; Donaldson, Dave; Kyle, Margaret; Williams, Heidi
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Universite PSL; MINES ParisTech; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：The home-market effect, first hypothesized by Linder (1961) and later formalized by Krugman (1980), is the idea that countries with larger demand for some products at home tend to have larger sales of the same products abroad. In this article, we develop a simple test of the home-market effect using detailed drug sales data from the global pharmaceutical industry. The core of our empirical strategy is the observation that a country's exogenous demographic composition can be used as a predictor...
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作者：Jaravel, Xavier
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This article examines how product innovations led to inflation inequality in the United States from 2004 to 2015. Using scanner data from the retail sector, I find that annual inflation for retail products was 0.661 (std. err. 0.0535) percentage points higher for the bottom income quintile relative to the top income quintile. When including changes in product variety over time, this difference increases to 0.8846 (std. err. 0.0739) percentage points a year. In CEX-CPI data covering the full co...
