EXCHANGE ARRANGEMENTS ENTERING THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY: WHICH ANCHOR WILL HOLD?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ilzetzki, Ethan; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Rogoff, Kenneth S.
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Harvard University
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjy033
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 599-646
• 关键词: RATE REGIMES; trilemma; crises; rates; flexibility; inflation; fear

摘要

This article provides a comprehensive history of anchor or reference currencies, exchange rate arrangements, and a new measure of foreign exchange restrictions for 194 countries and territories over 1946-2016. We find that the often cited post-Bretton Woods transition from fixed to flexible arrangements is overstated; regimes with limited flexibility remain in the majority. Even if central bankers' communications jargon has evolved considerably in recent decades, it is apparent that many still place a large implicit weight on the exchange rate. The U.S. dollar scores as the world's dominant anchor currency by a very large margin. By some metrics, its use is far wider today than 70 years ago. In contrast, the global role of the euro appears to have stalled. We argue that in addition to the usual safe assets story, the record accumulation of reserves since 2002 may also have to do with many countries' desire to stabilize exchange rates in an environment of markedly reduced exchange rate restrictions or, more broadly, capital controls: an important amendment to the conventional portrayal of the macroeconomic trilemma.