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作者：Dix-Carneiro, Rafael; Pessoa, Joao Paulo; Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo; Traiberman, Sharon
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; New York University
摘要：We argue that modeling trade imbalances is crucial for understanding transitional dynamics in response to globalization shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multicountry, multisector model of trade with two key ingredients: (i) endogenous trade imbalances arising from households' consumption and saving decisions; (ii) labor market frictions across and within sectors. We use our model to perform several empirical exercises. We find that the China shock accounted for 28% of the d...
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作者：Philippon, Thomas; Wang, Olivier
作者单位：New York University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We study time-consistent bank resolution mechanisms. The key constraint is that governments cannot avoid bailouts that are ex post efficient. Contrary to common wisdom, we show that the government may still avoid moral hazard and implement the first-best allocation by using the distribution of bailouts across banks to provide incentives. We analyze properties of credible tournament mechanisms that provide support to the best-performing banks and resolve the worst-performing ones. We extend our...
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作者：Baqaee, David R.; Burstein, Ariel
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We present a unified treatment of how welfare responds to changes in budget sets or technologies with taste shocks and nonhomothetic preferences. We propose a welfare metric that ranks production possibility frontiers that differs from one that ranks budget sets and characterize it using a general equilibrium generalization of Hicksian demand. This extends Hulten's theorem, the basis for constructing aggregate quantity indices, to environments with nonhomothetic and unstable preferences. We il...
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作者：Babina, Tania; He, Alex Xi; Howell, Sabrina T.; Perlman, Elisabeth Ruth; Staudt, Joseph
作者单位：Columbia University; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This article studies how federal funding affects the innovation outputs of university researchers. We link person-level research grants from 22 universities to patents, publications, and career outcomes from the U.S. Census Bureau. We focus on the effects of large, idiosyncratic, and temporary cuts to federal funding in a researcher's preexisting narrow field of study. Using an event study design, we document that these negative federal funding shocks reduce high-tech entrepreneurship and publ...
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作者：Ganong, Peter; Noel, Pascal
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：There are three prevailing theories of mortgage default: strategic default (driven by negative equity), cash flow default (driven by negative life events), and double-trigger default (where both negative triggers are necessary). It has been difficult to compare these theories in part because negative life events are measured with error. We address this measurement error using a comparison group of borrowers with no strategic-default motive. Our central finding is that only 6% of underwater def...
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作者：Moscona, Jacob; Sastry, Karthik A.
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：This article studies how innovation reacts to climate change and shapes its economic impacts, focusing on U.S. agriculture. We show in a model that directed innovation can either mitigate or exacerbate climate change's potential economic damage depending on the substitutability between new technology and favorable climatic conditions. To empirically investigate the technological response to climate change, we measure crop-specific exposure to damaging extreme temperatures and crop-specific inn...
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作者：Buggle, Johannes; Mayer, Thierry; Sakalli, Seyhun Orcan; Thoenig, Mathias
作者单位：University of Vienna; Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); University of London; King's College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Lausanne; International Institute for Management Development (IMD); University of Oxford
摘要：We estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of Jews facing persecution in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1941. Our empirical investigation makes use of a unique individual-level data set that records the migration history of the Jewish community in Germany over the period. Our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. We estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their migrat...
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作者：Bowen, T. Renee; Dmitriev, Danil; Galperti, Simone
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study learning via shared news. Each period agents receive the same quantity and quality of firsthand information and can share it with friends. Some friends (possibly few) share selectively, generating heterogeneous news diets across agents. Agents are aware of selective sharing and update beliefs by Bayes's rule. Contrary to standard learning results, we show that beliefs can diverge in this environment, leading to polarization. This requires that (i) agents hold misperceptions (even mino...
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作者：Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus; Koyama, Mark; Lin, Youhong; Sng, Tuan-Hwee
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; George Mason University; Xiamen University; National University of Singapore
摘要：Patterns of state formation have crucial implications for comparative economic development. Diamond (1997) famously argued that fractured land was responsible for China's tendency toward political unification and Europe's protracted polycentrism. We build a dynamic model with granular geographical information in terms of topographical features and the location of productive agricultural land to quantitatively gauge the effects of fractured land on state formation in Eurasia. We find that topog...
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作者：Bai, Ying; Jia, Ruixue; Yang, Jiaojiao
作者单位：Chinese University of Hong Kong; University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Scholars have argued that powerful individuals can exert influence on the path of a nation's development. Yet the process through which people can have an effect on macro-level political economy outcomes remains unclear. This study uses the deadliest civil war in modern history, the Taiping Rebellion (1850-1864), to elucidate how one person-Zeng Guofan-used his personal elite networks to organize an army to suppress the rebellion, and how these networks would affect the nation's power distribu...
