Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dix-Carneiro, Rafael; Pessoa, Joao Paulo; Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo; Traiberman, Sharon
• 署名单位: Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; New York University
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjac043
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 1109-1171
• 关键词: import competition; Global imbalances; structural-change; job destruction; LIBERALIZATION; TECHNOLOGY; shocks; MODEL; DYNAMICS; gravity

摘要

We argue that modeling trade imbalances is crucial for understanding transitional dynamics in response to globalization shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multicountry, multisector model of trade with two key ingredients: (i) endogenous trade imbalances arising from households' consumption and saving decisions; (ii) labor market frictions across and within sectors. We use our model to perform several empirical exercises. We find that the China shock accounted for 28% of the decline in U.S. manufacturing between 2000 and 2014-1.65 times the magnitude predicted from a model imposing balanced trade. A concurrent rise in U.S. service employment led to a negligible aggregate unemployment response. We benchmark our model's predictions for the gains from trade against the popular ACR sufficient-statistics approach. We find that our predictions for the long-run gains from trade and consumption dynamics significantly diverge.