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作者：Adamopoulos, Tasso; Brandt, Loren; Chen, Chaoran; Restuccia, Diego; Wei, Xiaoyun
作者单位：York University - Canada; University of Toronto; National Bureau of Economic Research; Zhejiang University; Shanghai Jiao Tong University
摘要：Frictions that impede the mobility of workers across occupations and space are a prominent feature of developing countries. We disentangle the role of insecure property rights from other labor-mobility frictions for the reallocation of labor from agriculture to nonagriculture and from rural to urban areas. We combine rich household and individual-level panel data from China and an equilibrium quantitative framework featuring sorting of workers across locations and occupations. We explicitly mo...
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作者：Ludwig, Jens; Mullainathan, Sendhil
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：While hypothesis testing is a highly formalized activity, hypothesis generation remains largely informal. We propose a systematic procedure to generate novel hypotheses about human behavior, which uses the capacity of machine learning algorithms to notice patterns people might not. We illustrate the procedure with a concrete application: judge decisions about whom to jail. We begin with a striking fact: the defendant's face alone matters greatly for the judge's jailing decision. In fact, an al...
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作者：Copeland, Adam; Duffie, Darrell; Yang, Yilin (David)
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Stanford University; City University of Hong Kong
摘要：We show that the likelihood of a liquidity crunch in wholesale U.S. dollar funding markets depends on levels of reserve balances at the financial institutions that are the most active intermediaries of these markets. Heightened risk of an imminent liquidity crunch is signaled by significant delays in intraday payments to these large financial institutions over the prior two weeks. Our study contributes to the broader dialogue surrounding the Federal Reserve's ongoing quantitative tightening.
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作者：Blaum, Joaquin
作者单位：Boston University
摘要：I investigate the consequences of firms' joint import and export decisions in the context of large devaluations. I provide empirical evidence that large devaluations are characterized by an increase in the aggregate share of imported inputs in total input spending and by reallocation of resources toward import-intensive firms, contrary to what standard quantitative trade models predict. These facts are explained by the expansion of exporters, which are intense importers. I develop a model wher...
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作者：Kaur, Supreet; Mullainathan, Sendhil; Oh, Suanna; Schilbach, Frank
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Paris School of Economics
摘要：Workers who are worried about their personal finances may find it hard to focus at work. If so, reducing financial concerns could increase productivity. We test this hypothesis in a sample of low-income Indian piece-rate manufacturing workers. We stagger when wages are paid out: some workers are paid earlier and receive a cash infusion while others remain liquidity constrained. The cash infusion leads workers to reduce their financial concerns by immediately paying off debts and buying househo...
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作者：Elzayn, Hadi; Smith, Evelyn; Hertz, Thomas; Guage, Cameron; Ramesh, Arun; Fisher, Robin; Ho, Daniel E.; Goldin, Jacob
作者单位：Stanford University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of California System; University of California Davis; United States Department of the Treasury; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：Tax authorities around the world rely on audits to detect underreported tax liabilities and to verify that taxpayers qualify for the benefits they claim. We study differences in Internal Revenue Service audit rates between Black and non-Black taxpayers. Because neither we nor the IRS observe taxpayer race, we propose and use a novel partial identification strategy to estimate these differences. Despite race-blind audit selection, we find that Black taxpayers are audited at 2.9 to 4.7 times the...
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作者：Aizer, Anna; Early, Nancy; Eli, Shari; Imbens, Guido; Lee, Keyoung; Lleras-Muney, Adriana; Strand, Alexander
作者单位：Brown University; University of Toronto; Stanford University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We study the lifetime effects of the first and largest American youth employment and training program in the United States-the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), 1933-1942. We match newly digitized enrollee records to census, World War II enlistment, Social Security, and death records. We find that longer service in the CCC led to improvements in height, health status, longevity, geographic mobility, and lifetime earnings but did not improve short-term labor market outcomes, including employme...
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作者：Rambachan, Ashesh
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Decision makers, such as doctors, judges, and managers, make consequential choices based on predictions of unknown outcomes. Do these decision makers make systematic prediction mistakes based on the available information? If so, in what ways are their predictions systematically biased? In this article, I characterize conditions under which systematic prediction mistakes can be identified in empirical settings such as hiring, medical diagnosis, and pretrial release. I derive a statistical test ...
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作者：Andrabi, Tahir; Bau, Natalie; Das, Jishnu; Karachiwalla, Naureen; Khwaja, Asim Ijaz
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Pomona College; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Georgetown University; CGIAR; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We estimate the equilibrium effects of a public school grant program administered through school councils in Pakistani villages with multiple public and private schools and clearly defined catchment boundaries. The program was randomized at the village level, allowing us to estimate its causal impact on the market. Four years after the start of the program, test scores were 0.2 standard deviations higher in public schools. We find evidence of an education multiplier: test scores in private sch...
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作者：Gertler, Paul; Green, Brett; Wolfram, Catherine
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Washington University (WUSTL); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：A new form of secured lending using digital collateral has recently emerged, most prominently in low- and middle-income countries. Digital collateral relies on lockout technology, which allows the lender to temporarily disable the flow value of the collateral to the borrower without physically repossessing it. We explore this new form of credit in a model and a field experiment using school-fee loans digitally secured with a solar home system. Securing a loan with digital collateral drasticall...
