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作者：Mitrunen, Matti
作者单位：University of Helsinki
摘要：From 1944 to 1952, largely agrarian Finland had to export, on average, 4% of its yearly GDP in industrial products to the Soviet Union as war reparations. To meet the reparation demands, the Finnish state needed to provide extensive temporary support to Soviet-assigned industries with insufficient production capacity. This article documents the long-term effects of this extensive and temporary industrial policy on industrial and local development and on individual outcomes. Using newly digitiz...
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作者：Andrews, Isaiah; Kitagawa, Toru; McCloskey, Adam
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Brown University; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：Policy makers, firms, and researchers often choose among multiple options based on estimates. Sampling error in the estimates used to guide choice leads to a winner's curse, since we are more likely to select a given option precisely when we overestimate its effectiveness. This winner's curse biases our estimates for selected options upward and can invalidate conventional confidence intervals. This article develops estimators and confidence intervals that eliminate this winner's curse. We illu...
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作者：Boning, William C.; Hendren, Nathaniel; Sprung-Keyser, Ben; Stuart, Ellen
作者单位：United States Department of the Treasury; University of Massachusetts System; University of Pennsylvania; University of Sydney
摘要：We estimate the returns to IRS audits of taxpayers across the income distribution. We find an additional $1 spent auditing taxpayers above the 90th income percentile yields more than $12 in revenue, while audits of below-median income taxpayers yield $5. We construct our estimates by drawing from comprehensive internal accounting information and audit-level enforcement logs. We begin by estimating the average initial return to all audits of U.S. taxpayers filing in tax years 2010-2014. On aver...
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作者：Chandra, Amitabh; Flack, Evan; Obermeyer, Ziad
作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：What happens when patients suddenly stop their medications? We study the health consequences of drug interruptions caused by large, abrupt, and arbitrary changes in price. Medicare's prescription drug benefit as-if-randomly assigns 65-year-olds a drug budget as a function of their birth month, beyond which out-of-pocket costs suddenly increase. Those facing smaller budgets consume fewer drugs and die more: mortality increases 0.0164 percentage points per month (13.9%) for each $100 per month b...
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作者：Dube, Oeindrila; Macarthur, Sandy Jo; Shah, Anuj K.
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University
摘要：What causes adverse policing outcomes, such as excessive uses of force and unnecessary arrests? Prevailing explanations focus on problematic officers or deficient regulations and oversight. We introduce an overlooked perspective. We suggest that the cognitive demands inherent in policing can undermine officer decision making. Unless officers are prepared for these demands, they may jump to conclusions too quickly without fully considering alternative ways of seeing a situation. This can lead t...
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作者：Prato, Marta
作者单位：Bocconi University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：How does inventors' migration affect international talent allocation, knowledge diffusion, and productivity growth? To answer this question, I build a novel two-country innovation-led endogenous growth model, where heterogeneous inventors produce innovations, learn from others, and make dynamic migration and return decisions. Migrants interact with individuals at origin and destination, diffusing knowledge within and across countries. To quantify this framework, I construct a micro-level data ...
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作者：Payne, Jonathan; Szoke, Balint; Hall, George; Sargent, Thomas J.
作者单位：Princeton University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Brandeis University; New York University; Stanford University
摘要：From a new data set, we infer time series of term structures of yields on U.S. federal bonds during the gold standard era from 1791-1933 and use our estimates to reassess historical narratives about how the United States expanded its fiscal capacity. We show that U.S. debt carried a default risk premium until the end of the nineteenth century, when it started being priced as an alternative safe asset to U.K. debt. During the Civil War, investors expected the United States to return to a gold s...
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作者：Althoff, Lukas; Reichardt, Hugo
作者单位：Stanford University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This article studies the long-run effects of slavery and restrictive Jim Crow institutions on Black Americans' economic outcomes. We track individual-level census records of each Black family from 1850 to 1940 and extend our analysis to neighborhood-level outcomes in 2000 and surname-based outcomes in 2023. We show that Black families whose ancestors were enslaved until the Civil War have considerably lower education, income, and wealth than Black families whose ancestors were free before the ...
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作者：Arold, Benjamin W.
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich
摘要：Anti-scientific attitudes can impose substantial costs on societies. Can schools be an important agent in mitigating the propagation of such attitudes? This article investigates the effect of the content of science education on anti-scientific attitudes, knowledge, and choices. The analysis exploits staggered reforms that reduce or expand the coverage of evolution theory in U.S. state science education standards. I compare adjacent student cohorts in models with state and cohort fixed effects....
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作者：Exley, Christine L.; Hauser, Oliver P.; Moore, Molly; Pezzuto, John-Henry
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Exeter; Washington University (WUSTL); University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：While there is a vast (and mixed) literature on gender differences in social preferences, little is known about believed gender differences in social preferences. Using data from 15 studies and 8,979 individuals, we find that women are believed to be more generous and more equality-oriented than men. This believed gender gap is robust across a wide range of contexts that vary in terms of strategic considerations, selfish motives, fairness concepts, and payoffs. Yet this believed gender gap is ...
