Global Firms in Large Devaluations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Blaum, Joaquin
• 署名单位: Boston University
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjae017
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 2427-2474
• 关键词: exchange-rate; TRADE; PRODUCTIVITY; CONSEQUENCES; elasticity; DYNAMICS; balance; gains

摘要

I investigate the consequences of firms' joint import and export decisions in the context of large devaluations. I provide empirical evidence that large devaluations are characterized by an increase in the aggregate share of imported inputs in total input spending and by reallocation of resources toward import-intensive firms, contrary to what standard quantitative trade models predict. These facts are explained by the expansion of exporters, which are intense importers. I develop a model where firms globally decide their import and export strategies and discipline it to match salient features of the Mexican micro data. After a devaluation, the model reproduces the pattern of low aggregate substitution and firm reallocation observed in the data. Compared with a benchmark without global firms, the model predicts higher growth of total exports and imports and a smaller reduction in the trade deficit.