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作者：Ramalho, Esmeralda A.; Smith, Richard J.
作者单位：University of Evora; University of Cambridge
摘要：Missing values are endemic in the data sets available to econometricians. This paper suggests a semiparametrically efficient likelihood-based approach to deal with general non-ignorable missing data problems for discrete choice models. Our concern is when the dependent variable and/or covariates are unobserved for some sampling units. A supplementary random sample of observations on all covariates may be available. The key insight of this paper is the recognition of non-response as a modificat...
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作者：Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Jeanne, Olivier
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：The textbook neoclassical growth model predicts that countries with faster productivity growth should invest more and attract more foreign capital. We show that the allocation of capital flows across developing countries is the opposite of this prediction: capital does not flow more to countries that invest and grow more. We call this puzzle the allocation puzzle. Using a wedge analysis, we find that the pattern of capital flows is driven by national saving: the allocation puzzle is a saving p...
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作者：Telyukova, Irina A.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：In the 2001 U.S. Survey of Consumer Finances, 27% of households report simultaneously revolving significant credit card debt and holding sizeable amounts of low-return liquid assets; this is known as the credit card debt puzzle. In this article, I quantitatively evaluate the role of liquidity demand in accounting for this puzzle: households that accumulate credit card debt may not pay it off using their money in the bank, because they anticipate needing that money in situations where credit ca...
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作者：DeJong, David N.; Liesenfeld, Roman; Moura, Guilherme V.; Richard, Jean-Francois; Dharmarajan, Hariharan
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; University of Kiel; Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)
摘要：We develop a numerical procedure that facilitates efficient likelihood evaluation in applications involving non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. The procedure employs continuous approximations of filtering densities, and delivers unconditionally optimal global approximations of targeted integrands to achieve likelihood approximation. Optimized approximations of targeted integrands are constructed via efficient importance sampling. Resulting likelihood approximations are continuous f...
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作者：Voigtlaender, Nico; Voth, Hans-Joachim
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; ICREA
摘要：How did Europe escape the Iron Law of Wages? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors and multiple steady states, and use it to explain why European per capita incomes and urbanization rates increased during the period 1350-1700. Productivity growth can only explain a small fraction of the rise in output per capita. Population dynamics-changes of the birth and death schedules-were far more important determinants of steady states. We show how a major shock to population can trigg...
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作者：Benabou, Roland
作者单位：Princeton University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This article investigates collective denial and willful blindness in groups, organizations, and markets. Agents with anticipatory preferences, linked through an interaction structure, choose how to interpret and recall public signals about future prospects. Wishful thinking (denial of bad news) is shown to be contagious when it is harmful to others, and self-limiting when it is beneficial. Similarly, with Kreps-Porteus preferences, willful blindness (information avoidance) spreads when it incr...
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作者：Bianchi, Francesco
作者单位：Duke University
摘要：The evolution of the U.S. economy over the past 55 years is examined through the lens of a micro-founded model that allows for changes in the behaviour of the Federal Reserve and in the volatility of structural shocks. Agents are aware of the possibility of regime changes and their beliefs matter for the law of motion underlying the macroeconomy. Monetary policy is identified by repeated fluctuations between a Hawk and a Dove regime, with the latter prevailing in the 1970s and during the recen...
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作者：Bianchi, Milo; Bobba, Matteo
作者单位：Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine; Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：We explore which financial constraints matter most in the choice of becoming an entrepreneur. We consider a randomly assigned welfare programme in rural Mexico and show that cash transfers significantly increase entry into entrepreneurship. We then exploit cross-household variation in the timing of these transfers and find that current occupational choices are significantly more responsive to the transfers expected for the future than to those currently received. Guided by a simple occupationa...
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作者：Balafoutas, Loukas; Beck, Adrian; Kerschbamer, Rudolf; Sutter, Matthias
作者单位：University of Innsbruck; University of Gothenburg; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：Credence goods are characterized by informational asymmetries between sellers and consumers that invite fraudulent behaviour by sellers. This article presents a natural field experiment on taxi rides in Athens, Greece, set up to measure different types of fraud and to examine the influence of passengers' presumed information and income on the extent of fraud. We find that passengers with inferior information about optimal routes are taken on significantly longer detours, while lack of informat...
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作者：Bhaskar, V.; Mailath, George J.; Morris, Stephen
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of Pennsylvania; Princeton University
摘要：We study stochastic games with an infinite horizon and sequential moves played by an arbitrary number of players. We assume that social memory is finite-every player, except possibly one, is finitely lived and cannot observe events that are sufficiently far back in the past. This class of games includes games between a long-run player and a sequence of short-run players, and games with overlapping generations of players. An equilibrium is purifiable if some close-by behaviour is consistent wit...
