Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Jeanne, Olivier
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Johns Hopkins University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdt004
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 1484-1515
• 关键词: growth; cycle

摘要

The textbook neoclassical growth model predicts that countries with faster productivity growth should invest more and attract more foreign capital. We show that the allocation of capital flows across developing countries is the opposite of this prediction: capital does not flow more to countries that invest and grow more. We call this puzzle the allocation puzzle. Using a wedge analysis, we find that the pattern of capital flows is driven by national saving: the allocation puzzle is a saving puzzle. Further disaggregation of capital flows reveals that the allocation puzzle is also related to the pattern of accumulation of international reserves. The solution to the allocation puzzle, thus, lies at the nexus between growth, saving, and international reserve accumulation. We conclude with a discussion of some possible avenues for research.