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作者：Azzimonti, Marina; Quadrini, Vincenzo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; University of Southern California; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We study how cross-country macroeconomic spillovers caused by sovereign default affect equilibrium bailouts. Because of portfolio diversification, the default of one country causes a macroeconomic contraction in other countries, which motivates a bailout. But why do creditor countries choose to bailout debtor countries instead of their own private sector? We show that this is because an external bailout could be cheaper than a domestic bailout. We also show that although anticipated bailouts l...
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作者：Kojima, Fuhito; Sun, Ning; Yu, Ning Neil
作者单位：University of Tokyo; University of Tokyo; Southern University of Science & Technology; Nanjing Audit University
摘要：In markets for indivisible resources such as workers and objects, subsidy and taxation for an agent may depend on the set of acquired resources and prices. This paper investigates how such transfer policies interfere with the substitutes condition, which is critical for market equilibrium existence and auction mechanism performance among other important issues. For environments where the condition holds in the absence of policy intervention, we investigate which transfer policies preserve the ...
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作者：Maxted, Peter
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：This paper incorporates diagnostic expectations into a general equilibrium macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector. Diagnostic expectations are a forward-looking model of extrapolative expectations that overreact to recent news. Frictions in financial intermediation produce non-linear spikes in risk premia and slumps in investment during periods of financial distress. The interaction of sentiment with financial frictions generates a short-run amplification effect followed by a...
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作者：Gratton, Gabriele; Lee, Barton E.
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich
摘要：We study a model of the rise and fall of illiberal democracies. Voters value both liberty and economic security. In times of crisis, voters may prefer to elect an illiberal government that, by violating constitutional constraints, offers greater economic security but less liberty. However, violating these constraints allows the government to manipulate information, in turn reducing electoral accountability. We show how elements of liberal constitutions induce voters to elect illiberal governme...
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作者：Eslava, Marcela; Haltiwanger, John; Urdaneta, Nicolas
作者单位：Universidad de los Andes - Chile; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Duke University
摘要：What determines the distribution of establishments in terms of size and life-cycle growth? How are those determinants related to aggregate productivity? We provide novel answers by developing a framework that uses price and quantity information on establishments' outputs and inputs to jointly estimate the demand and production parameters, and subsequently, establishments' quality-adjusted productivity, deriving both micro-level and aggregate implications. We find that the dominant source of va...
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作者：Huo, Zhen; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya
作者单位：Yale University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：This article provides a general framework to study the role of production networks in international GDP comovement. We first derive an additive decomposition of bilateral GDP comovement into components capturing shock transmission and shock correlation. We quantify this decomposition in a parsimonious multi-country, multi-sector dynamic network propagation model, using data for the G7 countries over the period 1978-2007. Our main finding is that while the network transmission of shocks is quan...
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作者：Blumenstock, Joshua E.; Chi, Guanghua; Tan, Xu
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：How do social networks influence the decision to migrate? Prior work suggests two distinct mechanisms that have historically been difficult to differentiate: as a conduit of information, and as a source of social and economic support. We disentangle these mechanisms using a massive digital trace dataset that allows us to observe the migration decisions made by millions of individuals over several years, as well as the complete social network of each person in the months before and after migrat...
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作者：Andrews, Donald W. K.; Kwon, Soonwoo
作者单位：Yale University; Brown University
摘要：This paper is concerned with possible model misspecification in moment inequality models. Two issues are addressed. First, standard tests and confidence sets for the true parameter in the moment inequality literature are not robust to model misspecification in the sense that they exhibit spurious precision when the identified set is empty. This paper introduces tests and confidence sets that provide correct asymptotic inference for a pseudo-true parameter in such scenarios, and hence, do not s...
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作者：Cumming, Fergus; Dettling, Lisa
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper examines whether monetary policy pass-through to mortgage interest rates affects household fertility decisions. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in households' eligibility for a rate adjustment, coupled with the large reductions in the monetary policy rate that occurred during the Great Recession in the U.K. and U.S. We estimate that each one percentage point drop in the policy rate increased birth rates amongst households eligible for a rate adjustment by 3%. Our results p...
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作者：Sorrenti, Giuseppe; Zolitz, Ulf; Ribeaud, Denis; Eisner, Manuel
作者单位：University of Amsterdam; University of Zurich; University of Cambridge
摘要：We study the long-term effects of a randomized intervention targeting children's socio-emotional skills. The classroom-based intervention for primary school children has positive impacts that persist for over a decade. Treated children become more likely to complete academic high school and enrol in university. Two mechanisms drive these results. Treated children show fewer attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder symptoms: they are less impulsive and less disruptive. They also attain higher g...
