-
作者：Mertens, Karel; Ravn, Morten O.
作者单位：Cornell University; University of London; University College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes. Preannounced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise to contractions in output, investment, and hours worked while real wages increase. There are no significant anticipation effects on aggregate consumption. Implemented tax cuts, regardless of their timing, have expansionary effects, on output, consumption, investment, hours worked, and real ...
-
作者：Clemens, Jeffrey; Miran, Stephen
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：Balanced budget requirements lead to substantial pro-cyclicality in state government spending, with the stringency of a state's rules driving the pace at which it must adjust to shocks. We show that fiscal institutions can generate natural experiments in deficit-financed spending that are informative regarding fiscal stabilization policy. Alternative sources of variation in subnational fiscal policy often implicitly involve windfall financing, which precludes any effect of future debt or taxat...
-
作者：Novy-Marx, Robert; Rauh, Joshua D.
作者单位：University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Rochester; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University
摘要：During the last quarter of 2008, financial losses in state pension funds varied from 12 percent to 68 percent of the revenue generated by the state government. We quantify a sovereign default channel in the state municipal market by examining how changes in bond spreads vary with state pension fund losses, controlling for credit ratings and various measures of the state's fiscal strength. Municipal bond spreads rose by 7-15 basis points for each 10 percent of state-generated revenue lost by st...
-
作者：Auerbach, Alan J.; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：A key issue in current research and policy is the size of fiscal multipliers when the economy is in recession. We provide three insights. First, using regime-switching models, we find large differences in the size of spending multipliers in recessions and expansions with fiscal policy being considerably more effective in recessions than in expansions. Second, we estimate multipliers for more disaggregate spending variables which behave differently relative to aggregate fiscal policy shocks, wi...
-
作者：Feyrer, James; Shambaugh, Jay
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Georgetown University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper examines the effect of exogenous shocks to savings on world capital markets. Exogenous tax increases in the United States (from Romer and Romer 2010) are only partially offset by changes in domestic private savings, and only a small amount is absorbed by increased domestic investment (contra Feldstein and Horioka 1980). Almost half the change in taxes is transmitted abroad through a change in the US current account. Other countries experience decreases in current accounts and increa...
