Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mertens, Karel; Ravn, Morten O.
• 署名单位: Cornell University; University of London; University College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.4.2.145
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 145-181
• 关键词: fiscal-policy; household consumption; MARKET; IMPACT; news

摘要

We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes. Preannounced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise to contractions in output, investment, and hours worked while real wages increase. There are no significant anticipation effects on aggregate consumption. Implemented tax cuts, regardless of their timing, have expansionary effects, on output, consumption, investment, hours worked, and real wages. Results are shown to be robust. Tax shocks are important impulses to the US business cycle and anticipation effects have been important during several business cycle episodes. (JEL E23, E32, E62, H20, H30)