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作者：Gnocchi, Stefano
作者单位：Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：We study a noncooperative policy game between monetary and fiscal policy, where only monetary policy can commit to future actions. The equilibrium outcome of the game depends on the strategies available to the monetary policymaker. If strategies are left unrestricted, the central bank can alter the incentives of the fiscal authority in a way that replicates the full commitment solution. If the central bank cannot commit to respond to fiscal policy, the fiscal authority generates fluctuations i...
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作者：Parro, Fernando
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Technological change has reduced the relative price of capital goods. Reductions in trade costs make it cheaper to import capital goods. With capital-skill complementarity, both can increase the skill premium. I construct a general-equilibrium trade model with capital-skill complementarity to study the impact of changing worldwide trade costs and technologies on the skill premium. The impacts of trade costs and technical change are comparable, especially in developing countries, and much large...
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作者：Garetto, Stefania
作者单位：Boston University
摘要：I propose a general equilibrium framework where firms decide whether to outsource or integrate input manufacturing, domestically or abroad. By outsourcing, firms may benefit from suppliers' technologies, but pay mark-up prices. By sourcing intrafirm, they save on mark-ups and pay possibly lower foreign wages. Multinational corporations arise when firms integrate production abroad. The model predicts that intrafirm imports are positively correlated with the mean and variance of the firms' produ...
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作者：Burstein, Ariel; Cravino, Javier; Vogel, Jonathan
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
摘要：The production of capital equipment is concentrated among a small group of countries, and many countries import a large share of their equipment. If capital-skill complementarity is an important feature of technology, international trade may have important effects on the skill premium through its impact on equipment accumulation. In this paper we propose a tractable framework for evaluating this effect, provide simple analytic expressions linking observable changes in import shares by sector t...
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作者：Bachmann, Ruediger; Elstner, Steffen; Sims, Eric R.
作者单位：RWTH Aachen University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper uses survey expectations data to construct empirical proxies for time-varying business-level uncertainty. Access to the micro data from the German IFO Business Climate Survey permits construction of uncertainty measures based on both ex ante disagreement and ex post forecast errors. Ex ante disagreement is strongly correlated with dispersion in ex post forecast errors. Surprise movements in either measure lead to significant reductions in production that abate fairly quickly. We ext...
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作者：Bazzi, Samuel; Clemens, Michael A.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Concern has intensified in recent years that many instrumental variables used in widely-cited growth regressions may be invalid, weak, or both. Attempts to remedy this general problem remain inadequate. We show how a range of published studies can offer more evidence that their results are not spurious. Key steps include: grounding growth regressions in more generalized theoretical models, deployment of new methods for estimating sensitivity to violations of exclusion restrictions, opening the...
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作者：Justiniano, Alejandro; Primiceri, Giorgio E.; Tambalotti, Andrea
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：We find that the answer is no in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy in which exogenous movements in workers' market power are not a major driver of observed economic fluctuations. If they are, the tension between the conflicting stabilization objectives of monetary policy increases, but with negligible effects on the equilibrium behavior of the economy under optimal policy. (JEL E12, E23, E24, E31, E32, E52)
