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作者：Clementi, Gian Luca; Palazzo, Berardino
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Boston University
摘要：Firm entry and exit amplify and propagate the effects of aggregate shocks, leading to greater persistence and unconditional variation of aggregate quantities. Following a positive aggregate shock, entry rises. As in the data, entrants are small and their initial impact on aggregate dynamics is negligible. However, as the common productivity component reverts to its unconditional mean, the youngsters that survive grow larger, generating a wider and longer expansion than in a scenario without en...
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作者：Leukhina, Oksana M.; Turnovsky, Stephen J.
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：The English structural transformation from farming to manufacturing was accompanied by rapid technological change, expansion of trade, and massive population growth. While the roles of technology and trade in this process have been investigated, the literature has largely ignored the role of population growth. We examine population size effects on various aspects of structural development, characterizing their explicit dependence on preference-side and production-side characteristics of the ec...
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作者：Castro, Rui; Coen-Pirani, Daniele
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario); Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh
摘要：We study the evolution of educational attainment of the 1932-1972 cohorts using a human capital investment model with heterogeneous learning ability. Inter-cohort variation in schooling is driven by changes in skill prices, tuition, and education quality over time, and average learning ability across cohorts. Under static expectations the model accounts for the main empirical patterns. Rising skill prices for college explain the rapid increase in college graduation until the 1948 cohort. The d...
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作者：Debortoli, Davide; Lakdawala, Aeimit
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; Michigan State University
摘要：The paper proposes a new measure of the degree of credibility of the Federal Reserve. We estimate a medium-scale macroeconomic model, where the central bank has access to a commitment technology, but where a regime-switching process governs occasional re-optimizations of announced plans. The framework nests the commonly used discretion and commitment cases, while allowing for a continuum of intermediate cases. Our estimates reject both full-commitment and discretion. We instead identify occasi...
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作者：Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jon; Liu, Miao
作者单位：Columbia University; Columbia University; University of Chicago
摘要：China has experienced remarkably stable growth and inflation in recent years according to official statistics. We use systematic discrepancies between cross-sectional and time-series Engel curves to construct alternative estimates of Chinese growth and inflation. Our estimates suggest that official statistics present a smoothed version of reality. Official inflation rose in the 2000s, but our estimates indicate that true inflation was still higher and consumption growth was overstated. In cont...
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作者：Schoellman, Todd
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：A growing literature stresses the importance of early childhood human capital. I ask whether variation in early childhood investments can help explain cross-country income differences. I provide new empirical evidence: the adult outcomes of refugees are independent of age at arrival to the United States up to age six, despite dramatic improvements in income and environment upon arrival. A standard model is consistent with this finding if parents but not country are important for early childhoo...
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作者：Pouzo, Demian; Presno, Ignacio
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Universidad de Montevideo
摘要：This paper studies how international investors' concerns about model misspecification affect sovereign bond spreads. We develop a general equilibrium model of sovereign debt with endogenous default wherein investors fear that the probability model of the underlying state of the borrowing economy is misspecified. Consequently, investors demand higher returns on their bond holdings to compensate for the default risk in the context of uncertainty. In contrast with the existing literature on sover...
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作者：Wulfsberg, Fredrik
作者单位：Oslo Metropolitan University (OsloMet)
摘要：This is the first paper documenting the frequency and size of price adjustments using micro data from both the high-inflation period in the 1970s and 1980s, and the period of low inflation since the early 1990s. When inflation is high and volatile, prices change more frequently and in smaller magnitudes. When inflation is low and stable, prices change less frequently but in larger magnitudes. The frequency of price changes is more important for the variation in inflation when inflation is high...
