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作者：Basso, Henrique S.; Rachedi, Omar
作者单位：Banco de Espana; Universitat Ramon Llull; Escuela Superior de Administracion y Direccion de Empresas (ESADE)
摘要：We document that government spending multipliers depend on the population age structure. Using the variation in military spending and birth rates across US states, we show that the local fiscal multiplier is 1.5 and increases with the population share of young people, implying multipliers of 1.1-1.9 in the -interquartile range. A parsimonious -life cycle -open economy New Keynesian model with credit market imperfections and -age-specific differences in labor supply and demand explains 87 perce...
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作者：Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Koustas, Dmitri
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Chicago
摘要：We document a decline in the frequency of shopping trips in the United States since 1980 and consider its implications for the measurement of consumption inequality. A decline in shopping frequency as households stock up on storable goods (i.e., inventory behavior) will lead to a rise in expenditure inequality when the latter is measured at high frequency, even when underlying consumption inequality is unchanged. We find that most of the recently documented rise in expenditure inequality in th...
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作者：Choi, Michael; Rocheteau, Guillaume
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Irvine; Universite Paris-Pantheon-Assas
摘要：We develop a -random-matching model to study the price dynamics of monies produced privately according to a time-consuming mining technology. For our leading example, there exists a unique equilibrium where the value of money increases over time and reaches a steady state. There is also a continuum of -perfect-foresight equilibria where the price of money inflates and bursts gradually over time. Initially, money is held for a speculative motive, but it acquires a transactional role as it becom...
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作者：Ludvigson, Sydney C.; Ma, Sai; Ng, Serena
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Columbia University
摘要：Uncertainty about the future rises in recessions. But is uncertainty a source of business cycles or an endogenous response to them, and does the type of uncertainty matter? We propose a novel SVAR identification strategy to address these questions via inequality constraints on the structural shocks. We find that sharply higher macroeconomic uncertainty in recessions is often an endogenous response to output shocks, while uncertainty about financial markets is a likely source of output fluctuat...
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作者：Yang, Mu-Jeung
作者单位：Utah System of Higher Education; University of Utah
摘要：How large are the aggregate productivity losses from the misallocation of resources across firms? With endogenous selection, microfrictions can induce extensive margin misallocation among firms: too many unproductive firms are active (Zombies), and too many productive firms are inactive (Shadows). Therefore, the same set of measured distortions potentially induces much larger aggregate productivity losses, as the composition of firms is shifted toward unproductive active firms. I develop and c...
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作者：Kozlowski, Julian
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：Trading frictions in financial markets affect more long-term than short-term bonds, generating an upward-sloping yield curve. Long-term financing is more expensive in economies with higher trading frictions so firms choose to borrow and invest in shorter horizons and lower productivity projects. The theory guides a new identification of the slope of liquidity spread in the data. We measure and calibrate the model for the United States, and counterfactual exercises suggest that variations in tr...
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作者：Di Tella, Sebastian; Kurlat, Pablo
作者单位：Stanford University; University of Southern California
摘要：We propose a model of banks' exposure to movements in interest rates and their role in the transmission of monetary shocks. Since bank deposits provide liquidity, higher interest rates allow banks to earn larger spreads on deposits. Therefore, if risk aversion is higher than one, banks' optimal dynamic hedging strategy is to take losses when interest rates rise. This risk exposure can be achieved by a traditional maturity-mismatched balance sheet and amplifies the effects of monetary shocks on...
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作者：Pilossoph, Laura; Wee, Shu Lin
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：We develop a model where selection into marriage and household search generate a marital wage premium. Beyond selection, married individuals earn higher wages for two reasons. First, income pooling within a joint household raises risk-averse individuals' reservation wages. Second, married individuals climb the job ladder faster, as they internalize that higher wages increase their partner's selectivity over offers. Specialization according to comparative advantage in search generates a premium...
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作者：Bigio, Saki; d'Avernas, Adrien
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：Financial crises are particularly severe and lengthy when banks fail to recapitalize after bearing large losses. We present a model that explains the slow recovery of bank capital and economic activity. Banks provide intermediation in markets with information asymmetries. Large equity losses force banks to tighten intermediation, which exacerbates adverse selection. Adverse selection lowers bank profit margins, which slows both the internal growth of equity and equity injections. This mechanis...
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作者：Brooks, Wyatt J.; Kaboski, Joseph P.; Li, Yao Amber
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：Industrial agglomeration policies may limit competition. We develop, validate, and apply a novel approach for measuring competition based on the comovement of markups and market shares among firms in the same location and industry. Then we develop a model of how this reduction in competition affects aggregate income. We apply our approach to the well-known special economic zones (SEZs) of China. We estimate that firms in SEZs exhibit cooperative pricing almost three times as intensively as fir...
