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作者：Jungherr, Joachim; Schott, Immo
作者单位：University of Bonn; Universite de Montreal; Universite de Montreal
摘要：Business credit lags GDP growth by about one year. This contributes to high leverage during recessions and slow deleveraging. We show that a model in which firms use risky long-term debt replicates this slow adjustment of firm debt. In the model, slow-moving debt has important effects for real activity. High levels of firm debt issued during expansions are only gradually reduced during recessions. This generates an adverse feedback loop between high default rates and low investment and thereby...
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作者：Cai, Jie; Li, Nan; Santacreu, Ana Maria
作者单位：Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; International Monetary Fund; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：This paper provides a unified framework for quantifying the cross-country and cross-sector interactions among trade, inno-vation, and knowledge diffusion. This framework is used to study the effect of trade liberalization in an endogenous growth model in which comparative advantage and the stock of knowledge are determined by innovation and diffusion. The model is calibrated to match observed cross-country and cross-sector heterogeneity in pro-duction, innovation efficiency, and knowledge spil...
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作者：Carlsson, Mikael; Westermark, Andreas
作者单位：Uppsala University; Sveriges Riksbank; Sveriges Riksbank
摘要：We show that in microdata , as well as in a search and matching model with flexible wages for new hires , wage rigidities of incumbent workers have substantial effects on separations and unemployment volatility. Allowing for an empirically relevant degree of wage rigidities for incumbent workers drives unemployment volatility as well as the volatility of vacancies and tightness to that in the data. Thus , the degree of wage rigidity for newly hired workers is not a sufficient statistic for det...
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作者：Mandelman, Federico S.; Zlate, Andrei
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We show that the observed polarization of employment toward the high-and low-skill occupations disappears when only native workers are considered. Instead, low-skilled immigration explains employment growth at the low tail of the skill distribution. Moreover, while employment rose, wages remained subdued in low-skill occupations. A data-disciplined structural model accounts for this evidence: Offshoring and automation negatively affect middle-skill occupations but enhance employment and wages ...
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作者：Johri, Alok; Rahman, Md Mahbubur
作者单位：McMaster University; Statistics Canada
摘要：India's relative price of investment rose 44 percent from 1981 to 1991 and fell 26 percent from 1991 to 2006. We build a simple DGE model, calibrated to Indian data, in order to explore the impact of capital import substitution policies and their reform post-1991 in accounting for this rise and fall. Our model delivers a 23 percent rise before reform and a 31 percent fall thereafter. GDP per effective labor was 3 percent lower in 1991 compared to 1981 due to import restrictions on capital good...
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作者：Davis, J. Scott; Devereux, Michael B.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; University of British Columbia
摘要：Capital controls may be justified as a policy to combat a financial crisis. But for large economies, capital controls may have substantial spillovers to the rest of the world. We investigate the case for capi-tal controls in a large open economy, when domestic financial con-straints may bind during a crisis. When the crisis country is indebted, it must trade off the desire to tax inflows to improve the terms of trade and tax outflows to ease financial constraints. This trade-off renders noncoo...
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作者：Beaudry, Paul; Willems, Tim
作者单位：Bank of Canada; International Monetary Fund
摘要：Analyzing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, we find that overly optimistic growth expectations for a country induce economic contractions a few years later. To isolate the causal effect, we take an instrumental variable approach-exploiting randomness in the country allocation of IMF mission chiefs. We first document that IMF mission chiefs differ in their individual degrees of forecast optimism, yielding quasi-experimental variation in the degree of forecast optimism at the country level...
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作者：Bils, Mark; Chang, Yongsung; Kim, Sun-Bin
作者单位：University of Rochester; Seoul National University (SNU); Yonsei University
摘要：We consider a matching model of employment with flexible wages for new hires but sticky wages within matches. Unlike most models of sticky wages, we allow effort to respond if wages are too high or too low. In the Mortensen-Pissarides model, employment is not affected by wage stickiness in existing matches. But it is in our model. If wages of matched workers are stuck too high, firms require more effort, lowering the value of additional labor and reducing hiring. We find that effort's response...
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作者：Morales-Jimenez, Camilo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：I propose a new mechanism for sluggish wages based on workers' noisy information about the state of the economy. Wages do not respond immediately to a positive aggregate shock because workers do not (yet) have enough information to demand higher wages. The model is robust to two major criticisms of existing theories of sluggish wages and volatile unemployment, namely, that wages are flexible for new hires and the flow opportunity cost of employment (FOCE) is pro-cyclicality. The model generate...
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作者：Hemous, David; Olsen, Morten
作者单位：University of Zurich; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Copenhagen
摘要：We build an endogenous growth model with automation (the replacement of low-skill workers with machines) and horizontal innovation (the creation of new products). Over time, the share of automation innovations endogenously increases through an increase in low-skill wages, leading to an increase in the skill premium and a decline in the labor share. We calibrate the model to the US economy and show that it quantitatively replicates the paths of the skill premium, the labor share, and labor prod...
