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最新文章

• Emerging Market Currency Excess Returns (vol 3, pg 85, 2012) AI翻译
  作者：Gilmore, Stephen; Hayashi, Fumio
• Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models AI翻译
  作者：Coenen, Guenter; Erceg, Christopher J.; Freedman, Charles; Furceri, Davide; Kumhof, Michael; Lalonde, Rene; Laxton, Douglas; Linde, Jesper; Mourougane, Annabelle; Muir, Dirk; Mursula, Susanna; de Resende, Carlos; Roberts, John; Roeger, Werner; Snudden, Stephen; Trabandt, Mathias; Veld, Jan In't
  作者单位：European Central Bank; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Carleton University; University of Palermo; International Monetary Fund; Bank of Canada; Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD)
  摘要：The paper subjects seven structural DSGE models, all used heavily by policymaking institutions, to discretionary fiscal stimulus shocks using seven different fiscal instruments, and compares the results to those of two prominent academic DSGE models. There is considerable agreement across models on both the absolute and relative sizes of different types of fiscal multipliers. The size of many multipliers is large, particularly for spending and targeted transfers. Fiscal policy is most effectiv...
• The Optimal Conduct of Monetary Policy with Interest on Reserves AI翻译
  作者：Kashyap, Anil K.; Stein, Jeremy C.
  作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
  摘要：In a world with interest on reserves, the central bank has two distinct tools that it can use to raise the short-term policy rate: it can either increase the interest it pays on reserve balances, or it can reduce the quantity of reserves in the system. We argue that by using both of these tools together, and by broadening the scope of reserve requirements, the central bank can simultaneously pursue two objectives: it can manage the inflation-output tradeoff using a Taylor-type rule, and it can...
• Contagious Adverse Selection AI翻译
  作者：Morris, Stephen; Shin, Hyun Song
  作者单位：Princeton University
  摘要：We illustrate the corrosive effect of even small amounts of adverse selection in an asset market and show how it can lead to the total breakdown of trade. The problem is the failure of market confidence, defined as approximate common knowledge of an upper bound on expected losses. Small probability events can unravel market confidence. We discuss the role of contagious adverse selection and the problem of toxic assets in the recent financial crisis.
• The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks AI翻译
  作者：Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Swanson, Eric T.
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
  摘要：The term premium in standard macroeconomic DSGE models is far too small and stable relative to the data-an example of the bond premium puzzle. However, in endowment economy models, researchers have generated reasonable term premiums by assuming investors have recursive Epstein-Zin preferences and face long-run economic risks. We show that introducing Epstein-Zin preferences into a canonical DSGE model can also produce a large and variable term premium without compromising the model's ability t...
• Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First AI翻译
  作者：Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Obstfeld, Maurice
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century's first global crisis. A discrete-choice panel analysis using 1973-2010 data suggests that domestic credit expansion and real currency appreciation have been the most robust and significant predictors of financial crises,...
• International Portfolio Allocation under Model Uncertainty AI翻译
  作者：Benigno, Pierpaolo; Nistico, Salvatore
  作者单位：Luiss Guido Carli University; Sapienza University Rome
  摘要：This paper revisits an old argument, hedging real exchange rate risk, as an explanation of the international home bias in equity. In a dynamic model, the relevant risk to be hedged is the long-run risk as opposed to the short-run risk. Domestic equity is indeed a good hedge with respect to long-run real-exchange-rate risk. Two new frameworks are able to explain a large share of the observed US home bias: a model with Hansen-Sargent preferences in which agents fear model misspecification and a ...