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作者：Faccini, Renato; Melosi, Leonardo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; European University Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Current and expected unemployment rates contain information that is highly useful to estimate the effect of news about TFP and to allow a general equilibrium rational expectations model to generate Pigouvian cycles: a large fraction of the comovement of output, consumption, investment, employment, and real wages is explained by noise about TFP. These results emerge because of the low -frequency negative relationship between unemployment and TFP growth. The model predicts that the start (end ) ...
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作者：Allen, Franklin; Barlevy, Gadi; Gale, Douglas
作者单位：Imperial College London; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; New York University
摘要：This paper uses a risk-shifting model to analyze policy responses to asset price booms. We show risk shifting leads to inefficient asset and credit booms in which asset prices can exceed fundamentals. However, the inefficiencies associated with risk shifting arise independently of whether the asset is a bubble. Given evidence of risk shifting, policymakers may not need to determine if assets are bubbles to justify intervention. We then show that some of the main candidate interventions against...
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作者：Fattal-Jaef, Roberto N.
作者单位：The World Bank
摘要：This paper studies the interaction between barriers to firm entry and distortions to allocative efficiency in a standard model of firm dynamics. We derive a strategy to infer entry barriers based on cross-country differences in the firm size distribution and idiosyncratic distortions. The inferred barriers resemble regulation-based indicators in advanced economies but are substantially higher in middle-and low-income countries. Regulation-based indicators cannot account for cross-country diffe...
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作者：Kindermann, Fabian; Krueger, Dirk
作者单位：University of Regensburg; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Tilburg University; University of Regensburg; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：This paper argues that high marginal labor income tax rates on top earners are an effective tool for social insurance even when households have high labor supply elasticity, households make dynamic savings decisions, and policies have general equilibrium effects. We construct a large-scale overlapping generations model with uninsurable labor productivity risk, show that it has a realistic wealth distribution, and numerically characterize the optimal top marginal rate. We find that marginal tax...
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作者：Fadinger, Harald; Ghiglino, Christian; Teteryatnikova, Mariya
作者单位：University of Mannheim; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Essex; HSE University (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Vienna University of Economics & Business
摘要：We study the importance of input-output (IO) linkages and sectoral productivity (TFP) in determining cross-country income differences. We find that while highly connected sectors are more productive than the typical sector in poor countries, the opposite is true in rich ones. To assess the quantitative role of linkages and sectoral TFP differences in cross-country income differences, we decompose cross-country income variation using a multisector general equilibrium model. We find that IO link...
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作者：Alder, Simon; Boppart, Timo; Mueller, Andreas
作者单位：Swiss National Bank (SNB); University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; Stockholm University; University of St Gallen; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Essex
摘要：We study structural change in the historical consumption expenditure of the United States , the United Kingdom , Canada , and Australia over more than a century. We characterize the most general class of preferences in a time-additive setting that admits aggregation of the saving decision and allows us to identify preference parameters from aggregate data. We parameterize and estimate such intertemporally aggregable (IA) preferences and discuss their properties in a dynamic general equilibrium...
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作者：Kreamer, Jonathan
作者单位：State University System of Florida; Florida State University
摘要：Since sectors differ in their sensitivity to interest rates, monetary policy produces inefficient sectoral fluctuations. In a model with sectoral heterogeneity, I show that policymakers should weight sectors proportionally to their interest elasticities, account for dynamic demand effects from durable goods, and systematically utilize forward guidance to reduce sectoral volatility. A calibrated model confirms these recommendations and finds that neglecting sectoral volatility produces substant...
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作者：Akinci, Ozge; Queralto, Albert
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Credit spreads display occasional spikes and are more strongly countercyclical in times of elevated financial stress. Financial crises are extreme cases of this nonlinear behavior, featuring skyrocketing credit spreads, sharp losses in bank equity, and deep recessions. We develop and estimate a macroeconomic model with a banking sector in which banks' leverage constraints are occasionally binding and equity issuance is endogenous. The model captures the nonlinearities in the data and produces ...
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作者：Roi
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：I study efficiency and optimal monetary policy in a two-country monetary union with frictional labor markets. With heterogeneity in labor market frictions, the constrained efficient allocation generically cannot be achieved even if productivity shocks affecting each country are the same. The second-best optimal policy targets smaller inflation and output gaps in the more sclerotic labor market. A quantitative calibration to the eurozone implies welfare gains from redefining the union's inflati...
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作者：Commault, Jeanne
作者单位：Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po)
摘要：Studies based on natural experiments find that consumption responds strongly and significantly to a transitory variation in income, while semistructural estimations find no pass-through of transitory shocks to consumption. I develop a more robust semistructural estimator that relaxes the assumption that log consumption is a random walk. The robust pass-through estimate is significant and large, implying a yearly marginal propensity to consume of 0.32, close to the natural experiment findings. ...
