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作者：Hintermaier, Thomas; Koeniger, Winfried
作者单位：University of Bonn; University of St Gallen
摘要：This paper investigates the economic relevance of the large differences in homestead exemptions across US states. We build a structural model for an equilibrium analysis of debt-portfolio choices over the life cycle. Our analysis captures key patterns from the observed cross-sectional distributions of secured debt, unsecured debt, and of home equity. The model predicts that harmonizing the amount of home equity exempt in bankruptcy procedures has quantitatively negligible effects on the intere...
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作者：Phelan, Gregory
作者单位：Williams College
摘要：This paper investigates how financial sector leverage affects macroeconomic instability and welfare. In the model, banks borrow ( use leverage) to allocate resources to productive projects and provide liquidity. When banks do not actively issue new equity, aggregate outcomes depend on the level of equity in the financial sector. Equilibrium is inefficient because agents do not internalize how their decisions affect volatility, aggregate leverage, and the returns on assets. Leverage creates sys...
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作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; van Wincoop, Eric
作者单位：University of Lausanne; University of Virginia
摘要：While the 2008-2009 financial crisis originated in the United States, output, consumption, and investment declined by similar magnitudes around the globe. Given the partial integration of both goods and financial markets, what can account for the remarkable global business cycle synchronicity during this period? To address this question, we develop a -two-country model allowing for self-fulfilling business cycle panics. We show that a business cycle panic will necessarily be synchronized acros...
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作者：Krause, Michael U.; Moyen, Stephane
作者单位：University of Cologne; Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：What are the effects of a higher central bank inflation target on the burden of real public debt? Several recent proposals have suggested that even a moderate increase in the inflation target can have a pronounced effect on real public debt. We consider this question in a New Keynesian model with a maturity structure of public debt and an imperfectly observed inflation target. We find that moderate changes in the inflation target only have significant effects on real public debt if they are es...
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作者：Tenreyro, Silvana; Thwaites, Gregory
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Bank of England
摘要：We investigate how the response of the US economy to monetary policy shocks depends on the state of the business cycle. The effects of monetary policy are less powerful in recessions, especially for durables expenditure and business investment. The asymmetry relates to how fast the economy is growing, rather than to the level of resource utilization. There is some evidence that fiscal policy has counteracted monetary policy in recessions but reinforced it in booms. We also find evidence that c...
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作者：Romer, Christina D.; Romer, David H.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：This paper uses Social Security benefit increases from 1952 to 1991 to investigate the macroeconomic effects of changes in transfers. It finds a large, immediate, and significant positive response of consumption to permanent benefit increases. The response declines after about five months, and does not appear to spread to industrial production or employment. The effects of transfers are faster, but much less persistent and much smaller overall, than those of tax changes. Finally, monetary poli...
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作者：Cloyne, James; Huertgen, Patrick
作者单位：Bank of England; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：This paper estimates the effects of monetary policy based on a new, extensive real-time dataset for the United Kingdom. Employing the Romer-Romer identification approach we construct a new measure of monetary policy innovations and find that a 1 percentage point increase in the policy rate reduces output by 0.6 percent and inflation by up to 1 percentage point after 2 to 3 years. Our use of forecast data is shown to be crucial and that their omission generates the well-known price puzzle. Our ...
