-
作者：Brueckner, Markus
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University
摘要：Does an expansion of the population size expose nation states to a higher risk of suffering from civil conflict? Obtaining empirical evidence for a causal relationship is difficult due to reverse effects and omitted variable bias. This article addresses causality issues by using randomly occurring drought as an instrumental variable to generate exogenous variation in population size for a panel of 37 Sub-Saharan countries over the period 1981-2004. Instrumental variable estimates yield that a ...
-
作者：Monacelli, Tommaso; Perotti, Roberto
摘要：We estimate the effects of government spending shocks on the CPI real exchange rate, the trade balance and their co-movements with GDP and private consumption. We decompose the variations of the CPI real exchange rate into variations of the traded goods real exchange rate and the relative price of traded to non-traded goods. We reach three main conclusions: a rise in government spending induces a depreciation of the CPI real exchange rate and a trade balance deficit; private consumption rises ...
-
作者：Bloom, Nicholas; Genakos, Christos; Martin, Ralf; Sadun, Raffaella
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Harvard University
摘要：We use an innovative methodology to measure management practices in over 300 manufacturing firms in the UK. We then match this management data to production and energy usage information for establishments owned by these firms. We find that establishments in better managed firms are significantly less energy intensive. This effect is quantitatively substantial: going from the 25th to the 75th percentile of management practices is associated with a 17.4% reduction in energy intensity. Better man...
-
作者：Clark, Andrew E.; Senik, Claudia
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; Sorbonne Universite
摘要：This article provides unprecedented direct evidence from large-scale survey data on both the intensity (how much?) and direction (to whom?) of income comparisons. Income comparisons are considered to be at least somewhat important by three-quarters of Europeans. They are associated with both lower levels of subjective well-being and a greater demand for income redistribution. The rich compare less and are happier than average when they do, which latter is consistent with relative income theory...
-
作者：Brueckner, Markus; Ciccone, Antonio
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries' main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.
-
作者：Laibson, David; Mollerstrom, Johanna
摘要：Bernanke (2005) hypothesised that a 'global savings glut' was causing large trade imbalances. However, we show that the global savings rates did not show a robust upward trend during the relevant period. Moreover, if there had been a global savings glut there should have been a large investment boom in the countries that imported capital. Instead, those countries experienced consumption booms. National asset bubbles explain the international imbalances. The bubbles raised consumption, resultin...
-
作者：Miller, Marcus; Stiglitz, Joseph
作者单位：University of Warwick; Columbia University
摘要：An iconic model with high leverage and overvalued collateral assets is used to illustrate the amplification mechanism driving asset prices to 'overshoot' equilibrium when an asset bubble bursts - threatening widespread insolvency and what Richard Koo calls a 'balance sheet recession'. Besides interest rates cuts, asset purchases and capital restructuring are key to crisis resolution. The usual bankruptcy procedures for doing this fail to internalise the price effects of asset 'fire-sales' to p...
-
作者：Saint-Paul, Gilles
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics
摘要：I analyse a model where workers self-select in the educational occupation in a way which is correlated with their beliefs about the working of the market economy. Teachers have a disproportionate effect on the transmission of beliefs. Therefore, they generate a bias which makes it harder for the population to learn the true parameters of the economy if these are favourable to the market economy. Two parameters determine this bias. Social entropy defines how predictable one's occupation is as a...
-
作者：Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Peters, Ryan
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：This article explores a new approach to identifying government spending shocks which avoids many of the shortcomings of existing approaches. The new approach is to identify government spending shocks with statistical innovations to the accumulated excess returns of large US military contractors. This strategy is used to estimate the dynamic responses of output, hours, consumption and real wages to a government spending shock. We find that positive government spending shocks are associated with...
