Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is there a Causal Link?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Brueckner, Markus
• 署名单位: Pompeu Fabra University
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02352.x
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 535-550
• 关键词: instrumental variables; weak instruments; identification; GROWTH; people; number; wars

摘要

Does an expansion of the population size expose nation states to a higher risk of suffering from civil conflict? Obtaining empirical evidence for a causal relationship is difficult due to reverse effects and omitted variable bias. This article addresses causality issues by using randomly occurring drought as an instrumental variable to generate exogenous variation in population size for a panel of 37 Sub-Saharan countries over the period 1981-2004. Instrumental variable estimates yield that a 5% increase in population size raises the risk of civil conflict by around six percentage points.