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作者：Manski, Charles F.
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：I examine choice of size of government by a planner who has partial knowledge of population preferences and the productivity of public spending. Focusing on income tax-financed spending for infrastructure, I examine scenarios where the planner observes the outcome of a status quo policy and uses various decision criteria to choose policy. The analysis shows that the planner can reasonably choose a wide range of spending levels - thus, a society can rationalise having a small or large governmen...
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作者：Macours, Karen; Vakis, Renos
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; INRAE; The World Bank
摘要：This article analyses the role of interactions with local leaders in amplifying poor households' investment response to a social programme. The causal effect of social interactions is identified through the randomised assignment of leaders and other beneficiaries to three different interventions aimed at increasing human capital and productive investments. Social interactions are found to augment programme impacts on households' investments in education, nutrition and income-generating activit...
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作者：Bell, Brian; Jaitman, Laura; Machin, Stephen
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; University College London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Significant riots occurred in London in August 2011. The riots took place in highly localised geographical areas, with crime going up hugely in the affected sub-wards. The criminal justice response was to make sentencing for rioters much more severe. We show a significant drop in riot crimes across London in the six months after the riots, consistent with a deterrence effect from the tougher sentencing. More evidence of general deterrence comes from the observation that crime also fell in the ...
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作者：Blundell, Richard
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This study focuses on the transmission of inequality over the working life. A model of constrained intertemporal choice is used to provide structure to the distributional dynamics of wages, earnings, income and consumption. The mechanisms used to insure labour market shocks are examined in a partial-insurance setting where the manner and scope for insurance depends on the access to credit, the information available to consumers and the durability of income shocks. Drawing on recent research, f...
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作者：Crino, Rosario; Epifani, Paolo
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：We study, both theoretically and empirically, how trade imbalances affect the structure of countries' exports and wage inequality. We show that, in a Heckscher-Ohlin model with a continuum of goods, a Southern (Northern) trade surplus leads to an increase (reduction) in the average skill intensity of exports, in the relative demand for skills and in the skill premium in both countries. We provide robust support for the mechanism underlying these predictions using a large panel of countries obs...
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作者：Gregg, Paul; Machin, Stephen; Fernandez-Salgado, Marina
作者单位：University of Bath; University of Bristol; University of London; University College London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：UK real wage growth has slowed down, stagnated and recently turned sharply negative. We document the nature of real wage changes across the wage distribution over the last three decades, showing that recent patterns represent a distinct break of trend that pre-dates the onset of recession. We explore whether unemployment has become a stronger moderating influence on real wage growth and report, using aggregate economy-wide and regional panel data, that real wage-unemployment sensitivities have...
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作者：Fernandez, Raquel; Wong, Joyce Cheng
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); New York University; International Monetary Fund
摘要：This article develops a quantitative life-cycle model to study the increase in married women's labour force participation (LFP). We calibrate the model to match key life-cycle statistics for the 1935 cohort and use it to assess the changed environment faced by the 1955 cohort. We find that a higher divorce probability and changes in wage structure are each able to explain a large proportion of the LFP increase. Higher divorce risk increases LFP not because the latter contributes to higher mari...
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作者：Loomes, Graham; Pogrebna, Ganna
作者单位：University of Warwick
摘要：There is widespread interest in measuring risk attitudes and incorporating such measures into broader econometric analyses. We consider three elicitation procedures currently in use. We find considerable variability within - and even more, between - the results they produce. We suggest that this reflects the way that different instruments interact with imprecise underlying preferences. The short-run implication is that such procedures need to be used with caution and are likely to be highly co...
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作者：Ellis, Colin; Mumtaz, Haroon; Zabczyk, Pawel
作者单位：University of Birmingham; University of London; Queen Mary University London; Bank of England
摘要：We use a time-varying factor-augmented VAR to investigate changes in the transmission mechanism of economic shocks in the UK. Our estimates demonstrate the importance of time variation and suggest that monetary policy shocks had a bigger impact on inflation, equity prices and the exchange rate during the inflation targeting period. Changes in the transmission of policy shocks to bond yields point to more efficient management of long-run inflation expectations. Finally, we investigate responses...
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作者：Scholder, Stephanie von Hinke Kessler; Wehby, George L.; Lewis, Sarah; Zuccolo, Luisa
作者单位：University of York - UK; University of Iowa; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Bristol
摘要：We examine the effect of prenatal alcohol exposure on child academic achievement. We use a genetic variant in the maternal alcohol-metabolism gene ADH1B to instrument for alcohol exposure, whilst controlling for the child's genotype on the same variant. We show that the instrument is unrelated to an extensive range of parental characteristics and behaviour. OLS regressions suggest an ambiguous association between alcohol exposure and attainment but there is a strong social gradient in drinking...
