Real Wages and Unemployment in the Big Squeeze

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gregg, Paul; Machin, Stephen; Fernandez-Salgado, Marina
• 署名单位: University of Bath; University of Bristol; University of London; University College London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12139
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 408-432
• 关键词: youth unemployment; curve; puzzle; uk

摘要

UK real wage growth has slowed down, stagnated and recently turned sharply negative. We document the nature of real wage changes across the wage distribution over the last three decades, showing that recent patterns represent a distinct break of trend that pre-dates the onset of recession. We explore whether unemployment has become a stronger moderating influence on real wage growth and report, using aggregate economy-wide and regional panel data, that real wage-unemployment sensitivities have become stronger in the period from 2003 onwards. Finally, we offer some assessment of possible drivers of this increased sensitivity of real wages to unemployment.