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作者：Bentzen, Jeanet Sinding; Hariri, Jacob Gerner; Robinson, James A.
作者单位：University of Copenhagen; University of Chicago
摘要：This article documents that indigenous democratic practices are associated with contemporary representative democracy. The basic association is conditioned on the relative strength of the indigenous groups within a country; stronger groups were able to shape national regime trajectories, weaker groups were not. Our analyses suggest that institutions are more likely to persist if they are supported by powerful actors and less likely to persist if the existing power structure is disrupted by, e....
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作者：Booth, Alison; Fan, Elliott; Meng, Xin; Zhang, Dandan
作者单位：Australian National University; National Taiwan University; Peking University
摘要：Our Beijing-based laboratory experiment investigated gender differences in competitive choices across different birth-cohorts experiencing - during their crucial developmental-age - different institutions and social norms. To control for general time trends, we use Taipei counterpart subjects with identical original Confucian traditions. Our findings confirm that exposure to different institutions/norms during crucial developmental-ages significantly changes individuals' behaviour. In particul...
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作者：Gaarder, Ingvil
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：This article examines the incidence and distributional effects of value added taxes (VAT). A sharp change in the VAT policy on food in Norway is exploited. My findings suggest that taxes levied on food are completely shifted to consumer prices, while there is little spill-over effects to most other goods. To understand the distributional effects of the reform, one uses expenditure data and estimate the compensating variation of the tax induces price changes. I find that lowering the VAT on foo...
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作者：Benhabib, Jess; Spiegel, Mark M.
作者单位：New York University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We examine whether sentiment influences aggregate demand by studying the relationship between the Michigan Survey expectations concerning national output growth and future economic activity at the state level. We instrument for local sentiments with political outcomes, positing that agents in states with a higher share of congressmen from the political party of the sitting President will be more optimistic. This instrument is strong in the first stage, and our results confirm a positive relati...
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作者：Klemp, Marc; Weisdorf, Jacob
作者单位：University of Copenhagen; Brown University; Harvard University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Southern Denmark
摘要：Exploiting a genealogy of English individuals living in the 16th to the 19th centuries, this study shows that lower parental reproductive capacity positively affected the socio-economic achievements of offspring. Using the time interval between the date of marriage and the first birth as a measure of reproductive capacity, we find that parental fecundity positively affected the number of siblings and that children of parents with lower fecundity were more likely to become literate and employed...
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作者：Palfrey, Thomas R.; Pogorelskiy, Kirill
作者单位：California Institute of Technology; University of Warwick
摘要：How does communication among voters affect turnout? In a laboratory experiment, subjects, divided into two competing parties, choose between costly voting and abstaining. Pre-play communication treatments, relative to the no communication control, are public communication (subjects exchange public messages through computers) and party communication (messages are public within one's own party). Communication benefits the majority party by increasing its turnout margin, hence its winning probabi...
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作者：Braggion, Fabio; Ongena, Steven
作者单位：Tilburg University; University of Zurich
摘要：We study the effects of the 1971 deregulation of uk banking on firms' financial and investment policies. The deregulation was a turning point in the evolution of firm-bank relationships during the twentieth century. Indeed, for more than 80 years prior to deregulation, most firms had had a relationship with only one bank: this was no longer the case from 1971 on. Deregulation and intensifying competition in the banking sector spurred firms - in local markets with many banks already active - to...
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作者：Hoffmann, Mathias; Krause, Michael U.; Laubach, Thomas
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank; University of Cologne; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：During the 1990s and 2000s, survey expectations of long-run output growth for the US relative to the rest of the world were highly correlated with the US current account, and thus, with global imbalances. We show that this finding is, to a large extent, predicted by a two-region stochastic growth model simulated using expected trend growth based on surveys. In line with the intertemporal approach to the current account, a major part of the build-up and subsequent reversal of the US current acc...
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作者：Feve, Patrick; Guay, Alain
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Universite de Montreal
摘要：This article investigates the contribution of sentiment shocks to US fluctuations in a Structural VAR setup with restrictions at various frequencies. Sentiments shocks are identified as shocks orthogonal to fundamentals that account for most of the variance of confidence. We obtain that, contrary to news shocks on total factor productivity, sentiment shocks explain little of quantities and prices. Sentiments shocks mostly appear as an idiosyncratic component of confidence. These results are ro...
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作者：Pinter, Gabor
作者单位：Bank of England
摘要：This article studies the strong co-movement between house prices and job losses over the UK business cycle. An aggregate SVAR and a regional proxy SVAR model are used to provide empirical evidence on the effect of house prices on labour markets. To explain the mechanism, a general equilibrium model with collateral constraints, endogenous job separation and housing shocks is estimated via Bayesian methods. I find that shocks to housing demand: (i) explain about 10-20% of output fluctuations and...
