House Prices and Job Losses

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Pinter, Gabor
• 署名单位: Bank of England
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12613
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 991-1013
• 关键词: monetary-policy; equilibrium unemployment; business cycles; keynesian model; Home equity; US; SEPARATION; search; credit; shocks

摘要

This article studies the strong co-movement between house prices and job losses over the UK business cycle. An aggregate SVAR and a regional proxy SVAR model are used to provide empirical evidence on the effect of house prices on labour markets. To explain the mechanism, a general equilibrium model with collateral constraints, endogenous job separation and housing shocks is estimated via Bayesian methods. I find that shocks to housing demand: (i) explain about 10-20% of output fluctuations and 20-30% of labour market fluctuations via the collateral channel; and (ii) were a major cause in triggering the 1990 and 2008 recessions.