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作者：Hamilton, James D.; Wu, Jing Cynthia
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of Chicago
摘要：We develop a simple model of futures arbitrage that implies that if purchases by commodity index funds influence futures prices, then the notional positions of the index investors should help predict excess returns in these contracts. We find no evidence that the positions of index traders in agricultural contracts as identified by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission can help predict returns on the near futures contracts. Although there is some support that these positions might help pred...
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作者：Tartari, Melissa
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：Children of divorced parents exhibit lower test scores and educational attainment. Have these correlations a causal interpretation? Parents who divorce may be less likely to invest in their children while together or they may divorce to shield their children from the effects of marital conflict. I study the relationship between children's achievement and the marital status of their parents within a dynamic framework in which partners decide on whether to remain married, how to interact (with o...
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作者：Fernholz, Ricardo T.
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Claremont Graduate University; Claremont McKenna College
摘要：I consider dynamic models in which investors are heterogeneously informed about both foreign exchange interventions and exchange rate fundamentals and show that transparency sometimes exacerbates misalignment between the exchange rate and fundamentals. Although transparency reveals information about fundamentals, it also increases the precision of the exchange rate as a signal of those fundamentals that remain unknown (the signal-precision effect of transparency). If a central bank announcemen...
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作者：Ho, Chun-Yu
作者单位：Shanghai Jiao Tong University
摘要：This article develops and estimates a dynamic model of consumer demand for deposits in which banks provide differentiated products and product characteristics that evolve over time. The switching cost is 0.8% of the deposit's value, which leads the static model to bias the demand estimates. The dynamic model shows that the price elasticity over a long time horizon is larger than the same elasticity over a short time horizon. Counterfactual experiments with a dynamic monopoly show that reducing...
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作者：Moraga-Gonzalez, Jose L.; Viaene, Jean-Marie
作者单位：Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; University of Groningen; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam
摘要：We examine an export game where two (home and foreign) firms produce vertically differentiated products. The foreign firm is more R&D efficient and is based in a larger and richer market. The unique (risk-dominant) Nash equilibrium exhibits intra-industry trade, and the foreign producer manufactures a higher-quality product. When transport costs are low, unilateral dumping by the foreign firm arises; otherwise, reciprocal dumping occurs. For some parameters, a domestic antidumping policy leads...
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作者：Gervais, Martin; Jaimovich, Nir; Siu, Henry E.; Yedid-Levi, Yaniv
作者单位：University of Iowa; Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of British Columbia
摘要：The search-and-matching model of the labor market fails to match two important business cycle facts: (i) a high volatility of unemployment relative to labor productivity, and (ii) a mild correlation between these two variables. We address these shortcomings by focusing on technological learning-by-doing: the notion that it takes workers' time using a technology before reaching their full productive potential with it. We consider a novel source of business cycles, namely, fluctuations in the sp...
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作者：Bond, Eric W.; Tybout, James; Utar, Hale
作者单位：Vanderbilt University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Bielefeld
摘要：Relative to their counterparts in high-income regions, entrepreneurs in developing countries face less efficient financial markets, more volatile macroeconomic conditions, and higher entry costs. This article develops a dynamic empirical model that links these features of the business environment to cross-firm productivity distributions, entrepreneurs' welfare, and patterns of industrial evolution. Fit to panel data on Colombian apparel producers, the model yields estimates of a credit market ...
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作者：Burguet, Roberto; Caminal, Ramon
作者单位：Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE); Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：We study approval rules in a model where horizontal merger proposals arise endogenously as the outcome of negotiations among the firms in the industry. We make two main points. First, relatively inefficient merger proposals succeed with positive probability. That is, the negotiation process may result in a particular merger agreement despite the existence of an alternative one that would generate higher profits and higher consumer surplus. Second, the antitrust authority should optimally commi...
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作者：Butler, Jeffrey V.; Giuliano, Paola; Guiso, Luigi
作者单位：Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE); University of Nevada Las Vegas; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Individuals' beliefs about the trustworthiness of a generic member of the population are both heterogeneous across individuals and persistent across generations. We investigate one mechanism yielding these dual patterns: false consensus. In the context of a trust game experiment, we show that the relationship between behavior and beliefs is consistent with individuals extrapolating their trust beliefs from their own trustworthiness and that this tendency continues even after substantial learni...
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作者：Peer, Stefanie; Verhoef, Erik; Knockaert, Jasper; Koster, Paul; Tseng, Yin-Yen
作者单位：Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Vienna University of Economics & Business; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：Earlier studies on scheduling behavior have mostly ignored that consumers have more flexibility to adjust their schedule in the long run than in the short run. We introduce the distinction between long-run choices of travel routines and short-run choices of departure times, using data from a real-life peak avoidance experiment. We find that participants value travel time higher in the long-run context, supposedly because changes in travel time can be exploited better through the adjustment of ...
